IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality Test

  • Tsangyao Chang

    ()

    (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Hsiao-Ping Chu

    ()

    (Department of Business Administration, Ling-Tung University, Taichung, Taiwan)

  • Frederick W. Deale

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

This study applies the bootstrap panel causality test proposed by Kónya (2006), which accounts for both dependency and heterogeneity across countries, to test the causal link between population growth and economic growth in 21 countries over the period of 1870-2013. With regards to the direction of population growth-economic growth nexus, we found one-way Granger causality running from population growth to economic growth for Finland, France, Portugal, and Sweden, one-way Granger causality running from economic growth to population growth for Canada, Germany, Japan, Norway and Switzerland, and no causal relationship between population growth and economic growth is found in Belgium, Brazil, Denmark, Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sri Lanka, the UK, the USA and Uruguay. Furthermore, we found feedback between population growth and economic growth for Austria and Italy. Dividing the sample into two subsamples due to a structural break yielded different results in that for the first period of 1871-1951 we found that population growth Granger cause economic growth only for Finland and France, economic growth Granger cause population growth for Denmark, Japan, and Norway and that there is bidirectional causality between population growth and economic growth for both Austria and Italy. For the period of 1952-2013 we found that population growth Granger cause economic growth only for Sri Lanka, economic growth Granger cause population growth for Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, New Zealand, Spain, Switzerland, and Uruguay and that found bidirectional causality between population growth and economic growth only for Japan. Our empirical results have important policy implications for these 21 countries under study as the directions of causality tend to differ across countries and depending on the time period under question.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by University of Pretoria, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 201431.

as
in new window

Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201431
Contact details of provider: Postal: PRETORIA, 0002
Phone: (+2712) 420 2413
Fax: (+2712) 362-5207
Web page: http://www.up.ac.za/economics

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Cuong Le Van & Anh Ngoc Nguyen & Ngoc-Minh Nguyen, 2014. "Growth Strategy with Social Capital and Physical Capital- Theory and Evidence: the Case of Vietnam," Working Papers 2014-109, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  2. Mohamed Arouri & Gazi Salah Uddin & Kishwar Nawaz & Muhammad Shahbaz & Frédéric Teulon, 2013. "Causal Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Fresh Evidence from Innovative Accounting Approach in Case of Bangladesh," Working Papers 2013-037, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  3. Farooq, Abdul & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Does corruption impede economic growth in Pakistan?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 622-633.
  4. A.F. Darrat & Y.K. Al-Yousif, 1999. "On the Long-Run Relationship between Population and Economic Growth: Some Time Series Evidence for Developing Countries," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 301-313, Summer.
  5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohamed Arouri & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Short- and Long-Run Relationships between Natural Gas Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Working Papers 2014-289, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  6. Thanh Le & Cuong Le Van, 2014. "Natural Resources, R&D and Economic Growth," Working Papers 2014-112, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2014. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," Working Papers 2014-485, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  8. Jean Drèze & Mamta Murthi, 2001. "Fertility, Education, and Development: Evidence from India," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 33-63.
  9. Rangan Gupta & Lardo Stander, 2014. "Endogenous Fluctuations in an Endogenous Growth Model with Ination Targeting," Working Papers 2014-461, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  10. Cuong Le Van & Anh Ngoc Nguyen & Ngoc-Minh Nguyen, 2014. "Growth Strategy with Social Capital and Physical Capital- Theory and Evidence: the Case of Vietnam," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01021376, HAL.
  11. Wanjun Yao & Tomoko Kinugasa & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2013. "An empirical analysis of the relationship between economic development and population growth in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(33), pages 4651-4661, November.
  12. Cuong Le Van & Cagri Saglam & Agah Turan, 2014. "Optimal Growth Strategy Under Dynamic Threshold," Working Papers 2014-123, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  13. Phouphet KYOPHILAVONG & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "The Nexus Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Laos," Working Papers 2014-447, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  14. Sahbi Farhani & Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2014. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth in France: Evidence for the role of exports, capital and labor," Working Papers 2014-226, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  15. Pesaran, M.H. & Ullah, A. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross Section Independence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0641, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  16. Cuong Le Van & Tu Anh Nguyen & Tran Dinh Tuan, 2014. "Saving Rate, Total Factor Productivity and Growth Process for Developing Countries," Working Papers 2014-424, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  17. Partha Dasgupta, 2000. "Population and Resources: An Exploration of Reproductive and Environmental Externalities," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(4), pages 643-689.
  18. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1993. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4550, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Fatih Karanfil & Yuanjing Li, 2014. "Electricity consumption and economic growth: exploring panel-specific differences," Working Papers 2014-337, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  20. Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A.R., . "The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics," CORE Discussion Papers RP -412, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  21. M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2005. "Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels," IEPR Working Papers 05.14, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
  22. Christophe Hurlin & Elena Dumitrescu, 2012. "Testing for Granger Non-causality in Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers halshs-00224434, HAL.
  23. Cassen, Robert H., 1976. "Population and development: A survey," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(10-11), pages 785-830.
  24. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  25. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang, 2007. "Do High Birth Rates Hamper Economic Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 110-117, February.
  26. Tai-Hsin Huang & Zixiong Xie, 2013. "Population and economic growth: a simultaneous equation perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(27), pages 3820-3826, September.
  27. Tsangyao Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Frederick W. Deale & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "The Relationship between Population Growth and Economic Growth Over 1870-2013: Evidence from a Bootstrapped Panel-Granger Causality Test," Working Papers 201431, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  28. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Salah Uddin, Gazi & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The Nexus Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Lao PDR," MPRA Paper 57308, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2014.
  29. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sjö, Bo & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "The causal nexus between financial development and economic growth in Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 701-707.
  30. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August.
  31. John Thornton, 2001. "Population Growth and Economic Growth: Long-Run Evidence from Latin America," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 464-468, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201431. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rangan Gupta)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.