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Minority Report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Murphy

    (University of Texas at Austin & Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science)

  • Gill Wyness

    (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL Institute of Education, University College London & Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science)

Abstract

We study the UK's university application system, in which students apply based on predicted examination grades, rather than actual results. Using three years of UK university applications data we find that only 16 percent of applicants' predicted grades are accurate, with 75 percent of applicants having over-predicted grades. However, high-attaining, disadvantaged students are significantly more likely to receive pessimistic grade predictions. We show that under-predicted candidates are more likely to enroll in courses for which they are over qualified than their peers. We conclude that the use of predicted rather than actual grades has important implications for student's labour market outcomes and social mobility in general.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Murphy & Gill Wyness, 2020. "Minority Report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups," CEPEO Working Paper Series 20-07, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Mar 2020.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:20-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman, 2002. "The Evidence on Credit Constraints in Post--secondary Schooling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 705-734, October.
    2. Haroon Chowdry & Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Alissa Goodman & Anna Vignoles, 2013. "Widening participation in higher education: analysis using linked administrative data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 176(2), pages 431-457, February.
    3. Stuart Campbell & Lindsey Macmillan & Richard Murphy & Gill Wyness, 2022. "Matching in the Dark? Inequalities in Student to Degree Match," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 807-850.
    4. Caroline Hoxby & Christopher Avery, 2013. "The Missing "One-Offs": The Hidden Supply of High-Achieving, Low-Income Students," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 1-65.
    5. Eleanor Wiske Dillon & Jeffrey Andrew Smith, 2017. "Determinants of the Match between Student Ability and College Quality," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-66.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. COVID-19 and social mobility: the public support key policies that will help limit widening inequalities in employment and education
      by LSE BPP in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2020-11-04 08:00:14
    2. Covid-19 is increasing the divide in life chances between rich and poor
      by ? in LSE Business Review on 2020-04-21 05:00:17
    3. Covid-19 is increasing the divide in life chances between rich and poor
      by ? in Democratic Audit UK on 2020-04-22 07:40:00

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee Elliot Major & Stephen Machin, 2020. "Covid-19 and social mobility," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 583, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Jake Anders & Lindsey Macmillan & Patrick Sturgis & Gill Wyness, 2021. "Inequalities in young peoples' educational experiences and wellbeing during the Covid-19 pandemic," CEPEO Working Paper Series 21-08, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Jul 2021.
    3. Jake Anders & Catherine Dilnot & Lindsey Macmillan & Gill Wyness, 2020. "Grade Expectations: How well can we predict future grades based on past performance?," CEPEO Working Paper Series 20-14, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Aug 2020.
    4. Shabir Hussain Khahro & Yasir Javed & Zubair Ahmed Memon & Imran Hussain, 2022. "Teaching Tricks & Tools: A Case of Higher Education during COVID-19 Pandemic," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 13115593, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    5. Fumagalli, Laura & Rabe, Birgitta & Burn, Hettie, 2023. "Teacher grade predictions for ethnic minority groups: evidence from England," ISER Working Paper Series 2023-03, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Sayanti Kar & Indrajit Ghosh & Sebanti Show & Arunabh Sen & Tanya Gupta & Poushali Chowdhury & Tamasha Chatterjee & Abhishek RoyChowdhury, 2021. "Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak on Society, Air Quality, and Economy in India: A Study of Three “P”s of Sustainability in India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, March.
    7. Gill Wyness, 2020. "Higher education applications and admissions," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 7, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Aug 2020.
    8. Tokuda, Hidenobu & Abdulkadri, Abdullahi & Camarinhas, Catarina & Alleyne, Dillon & Hendrickson, Michael & Jones, Francis & McLean, Sheldon & Pantin, Machel & Phillips, Willard & Skerrette, Nyasha, 2021. "The case for financing: Caribbean resilience building in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for The Caribbean 46629, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    9. Karlsson, Linn & Wikström, Magnus, 2021. "Admission groups and academic performance: A study of marginal entrants in the selection to higher education," Umeå Economic Studies 1000, Umeå University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    University admissions; predicted grades; socioeconomic inequality; mismatch.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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