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Minority report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups

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  • Richard Murphy
  • Gill Wyness

Abstract

We study the UK's university application system, in which students apply based on predicted examination grades, rather than actual results. Using three years of UK university applications data we find that only 16% of applicants’ predicted grades are accurate, with 75% of applicants having over-predicted grades. However, high-attaining, disadvantaged students are significantly more likely to receive pessimistic grade predictions. We show that under-predicted candidates are more likely to enrol in courses for which they are over qualified. We conclude that the use of predicted rather than actual grades has important implications for labour market outcomes and social mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Murphy & Gill Wyness, 2020. "Minority report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 333-350, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:edecon:v:28:y:2020:i:4:p:333-350
    DOI: 10.1080/09645292.2020.1761945
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. COVID-19 and social mobility: the public support key policies that will help limit widening inequalities in employment and education
      by LSE BPP in British Politics and Policy at LSE on 2020-11-04 08:00:14
    2. Covid-19 is increasing the divide in life chances between rich and poor
      by ? in LSE Business Review on 2020-04-21 05:00:17
    3. Covid-19 is increasing the divide in life chances between rich and poor
      by ? in Democratic Audit UK on 2020-04-22 07:40:00

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jo Blanden & Oliver Cassagneau-Francis & Lindsey Macmillan & Gill Wyness, 2025. "Private highs: investigating university overmatch among students from elite schools," CEP Discussion Papers dp2115, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Lee Elliot Major & Stephen Machin, 2020. "Covid-19 and social mobility," CentrePiece - The magazine for economic performance 583, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Jake Anders & Catherine Dilnot & Lindsey Macmillan & Gill Wyness, 2020. "Grade Expectations: How well can we predict future grades based on past performance?," CEPEO Working Paper Series 20-14, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Aug 2020.
    4. Shabir Hussain Khahro & Yasir Javed & Zubair Ahmed Memon & Imran Hussain, 2022. "Teaching Tricks & Tools: A Case of Higher Education during COVID-19 Pandemic," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 13115593, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    5. Fumagalli, Laura & Rabe, Birgitta & Burn, Hettie, 2023. "Teacher grade predictions for ethnic minority groups: evidence from England," ISER Working Paper Series 2023-03, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    6. Gill Wyness, 2020. "Higher education applications and admissions," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 7, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Aug 2020.
    7. Burn, Hester & Fumagalli, Laura & Rabe, Birgitta, 2024. "Stereotyping and ethnicity gaps in teacher assigned grades," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. repec:ucl:cepeow:25-12 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Karlsson Linn & Wikström Magnus, 2022. "Admission Groups and Academic Performance: A Study of Marginal Entrants in the Selection to Higher Education," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 155-191, January.
    10. Jake Anders & Lindsey Macmillan & Patrick Sturgis & Gill Wyness, 2021. "Inequalities in young peoples' educational experiences and wellbeing during the Covid-19 pandemic," CEPEO Working Paper Series 21-08, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Jul 2021.
    11. Louis Magowan, 2023. "Centre assessment grades in 2020: a natural experiment for investigating bias in teacher judgements," Journal of Computational Social Science, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 609-653, October.
    12. Doğan, Battal & Erdil, Aytek, 2025. "Widening access in university admissions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    13. Sayanti Kar & Indrajit Ghosh & Sebanti Show & Arunabh Sen & Tanya Gupta & Poushali Chowdhury & Tamasha Chatterjee & Abhishek RoyChowdhury, 2021. "Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak on Society, Air Quality, and Economy in India: A Study of Three “P”s of Sustainability in India," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-25, March.
    14. Leckie, G. & Maragkou, K., 2024. "Tracing the Origins of Gender Bias in Teacher Grades," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2457, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Tokuda, Hidenobu & Abdulkadri, Abdullahi & Camarinhas, Catarina & Alleyne, Dillon & Hendrickson, Michael & Jones, Francis & McLean, Sheldon & Pantin, Machel & Phillips, Willard & Skerrette, Nyasha, 2021. "The case for financing: Caribbean resilience building in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic," Studies and Perspectives – ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for The Caribbean 46629, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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