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Matching in the Dark? Inequalities in student to degree match

Author

Listed:
  • Stuart Campbell
  • Lindsey Macmillan
  • Richard Murphy
  • Gillian Wyness

Abstract

This paper examines inequalities in the match between student and degree quality using linked administrative data from schools, universities and tax authorities. We analyse two measures of match at the university-subject level: undergraduate enrollment qualifications, and graduate earnings. We find for both that disadvantaged students match to lower quality degrees across the entire distribution of achievement, in a setting with uniform fees and a generous financial aid system. While there are negligible gender gaps in academic match, high-attaining women systematically undermatch in terms of expected earnings, driven by subject choice. These inequalities in match are largest among the most undermatched.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart Campbell & Lindsey Macmillan & Richard Murphy & Gillian Wyness, 2021. "Matching in the Dark? Inequalities in student to degree match," NBER Working Papers 29215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29215
    Note: ED
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    Cited by:

    1. Jo Blanden & Oliver Cassagneau-Francis & Lindsey Macmillan & Gill Wyness, 2025. "Private highs: investigating university overmatch among students from elite schools," CEP Discussion Papers dp2115, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Pedro Luis Silva, 2024. "Specialists or All-Rounders: How Best to Select University Students?," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 18(2), pages 227-271.
    3. Ilie, S. & Maragkou, K., 2024. "University admissions during a pandemic," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2458, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Kenedi, Gustave, 2024. "Beyond the enrolment gap: financial barriers and high-achieving, low-income students' persistence in higher education," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126824, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Gill Wyness, 2020. "Is higher education still worth the cost?," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 9, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Nov 2020.
    6. Gustave Kenedi, 2024. "Beyond the enrolment gap: Financial barriers and high-achieving, low-income students' persistence in higher education," CEP Discussion Papers dp1987, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Jerrim, John & Shure, Nikki & Wyness, Gill, 2020. "Driven to Succeed? Teenagers' Drive, Ambition and Performance on High-Stakes Examinations," IZA Discussion Papers 13525, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Judith M. Delaney & Paul J. Devereux, 2021. "Gender and Educational Achievement: Stylized Facts and Causal Evidence," Working Papers 202103, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    9. Omar Besbes & Yash Kanoria & Akshit Kumar, 2025. "Impact of Rankings and Personalized Recommendations in Marketplaces," Papers 2506.03369, arXiv.org.
    10. Julie Berry Cullen & Gordon B. Dahl & Richard De Thorpe, 2025. "Job Mismatch and Early Career Success," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2562, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    11. Richard Murphy & Gill Wyness, 2020. "Minority report: the impact of predicted grades on university admissions of disadvantaged groups," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 333-350, July.
    12. Richard Murphy & Pedro Luís Silva, 2024. "Keeping It in the Family: Student to Degree Match," CESifo Working Paper Series 11075, CESifo.
    13. Lindsey Macmillan & Richard Murphy & Gill Wyness, 2024. "Occupational hazard: Inequalities in labour market mismatch," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-06, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Oct 2024.
    14. Larivière, Jérôme, 2025. "From Rank to Label: How Early Academic Rank Shapes Educational Diagnoses and Mental Health Outcomes," MPRA Paper 124861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Pedro Luis Silva & Carla Sá & Ricardo Biscaia & Pedro N. Teixeira, 2022. "High school and exam scores: Does their predictive validity for academic performance vary with programme selectivity?," NIPE Working Papers 4/2022, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    16. Chiara Cavaglia & Lindsey Macmillan & Konstantina Maragkou & Richard Murphy & Gill Wyness, 2024. "The mismatch earnings penalty," CEPEO Working Paper Series 24-09, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Nov 2024.
    17. Gulia Bovini & Marta De Philippis & Lucia Rizzica, 2024. "The origins of the gender pay gap: education and job characteristics," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1470, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. de Silva, Tiloka, 2025. "Determinants of college mismatch in a rule-based admission system: The case of Sri Lanka," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    19. Anna Adamecz-Völgyi & Morag Henderson & Nikki Shure, 2023. "The labor market returns to “first-in-family” university graduates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1395-1429, July.
    20. Laura Outhwaite & Lindsey Macmillan, 2025. "What are the evidence-based ways to equalise opportunities?," CEPEO Briefing Note Series 33, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised May 2025.
    21. Britton, Jack & van der Erve, Laura & Belfield, Chris & Vignoles, Anna & Dickson, Matt & Zhu, Yu & Walker, Ian & Dearden, Lorraine & Sibieta, Luke & Buscha, Franz, 2022. "How much does degree choice matter?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality

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