University admissions during a pandemic

The global education system experienced unprecedented disruption during the Covid- 19 pandemic. This paper investigates the impact of the exam cancellation in England, and the subsequent shift to teacher-assigned grades, on university application outcomes submitted prior to the outbreak. Using a newly linked administrative dataset covering four cohorts of university applicants, with both teacher-assigned and exam-based grades across multiple A-level subjects, we identify significant grade inflation relative to anticipated exam results. Our findings indicate that students from schools with higher levels of grade inflation were more likely to gain admission to first-choice or selective universities, and had a lower likelihood of remaining unplaced. Notably, private school students disproportionately benefited from higher levels of grade inflation. However, within state schools, disadvantaged students also experienced some of the largest relative gains. These results raise important questions about the long-term consequences of the pandemic-induced modification in assessment for educational equity and social mobility.