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The Impact of COVID-19 on Community College Enrollment and Student Success: Evidence from California Administrative Data

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  • George Bulman
  • Robert Fairlie

Abstract

This paper examines how the pandemic impacted the enrollment patterns, fields of study, and academic outcomes of students in the California Community College System, the largest higher-education system in the country. Enrollment dropped precipitously during the pandemic-the total number of enrolled students fell by 11 percent from Fall 2019 to Fall 2020 and by another 7 percent from Fall 2020 to Fall 2021. The California Community College system lost nearly 300,000 students over this period. Our analysis reveals that enrollment reductions were largest among black and Latinx students, and were larger among continuing students than first-time students. We find no evidence that having a large online presence prior to the pandemic protected colleges from these negative effects. Enrollment changes were substantial across a wide range of fields and were large for both vocational courses and academic courses that can be transferred to four-year institutions. In terms of course performance, changes in completion rates, withdrawal rates, and grades primarily occurred in the spring of 2020. These findings of the effects of the pandemic at community colleges have implications for policy, impending budgetary pressures, and future research.

Suggested Citation

  • George Bulman & Robert Fairlie, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Community College Enrollment and Student Success: Evidence from California Administrative Data," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 17(4), pages 745-764, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:edfpol:v:17:y:2022:i:4:p:745-764
    DOI: 10.1162/edfp_a_00384
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    Cited by:

    1. Binelli, Chiara & Comi, Simona & Meschi, Elena & Pagani, Laura, 2024. "Every cloud has a silver lining: The role of study time and class recordings on university students’ performance during COVID-19," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 305-328.
    2. Elisa Failache & Nicolás Fiori & Noemi Katzkowicz & Alina Machado & Luciana Méndez, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on higher education: Evidence from Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 22-02, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    3. Ilie, S. & Maragkou, K., 2024. "University admissions during a pandemic," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2458, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Schanzenbach, Diane W. & Turner, Sarah, 2022. "Limited supply and lagging enrollment: Production technologies and enrollment changes at community colleges during the pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    5. Fernanda Estevan & Lucas Finamor, 2022. "School closures and educational path: how the Covid-19 pandemic affected transitions to college," Papers 2210.00138, arXiv.org.
    6. Dagorn, Etienne & Moulin, Léonard, 2025. "Dropping out of university in response to the COVID-19 pandemic," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Bonaccolto-Töpfer, Marina & Castagnetti, Carolina, 2024. "The COVID-19 pandemic: a threat to higher education? Evidence from a large university in Northern Italy," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 58, pages 1-18.
    8. Elisa Failache, 2023. "Taking advantage of COVID-19? Online learning, descentralization and tertiary education," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 23-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    9. Cassandra M.D. Hart & Di Xu & Emily Alonso & Michael Hill, 2025. "COVID-19 in California Community Colleges: College Responses, College Resources, and Student Outcomes," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 66(1), pages 1-28, February.
    10. Jonathan A. Tillinghast & Dr. James W. Mjelde & Anna Yeritsyan, 2023. "COVID-19 and Grade Inflation: Analysis of Undergraduate GPAs During the Pandemic," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, November.
    11. Prudencio, Daniel & Balmori-de-la-Miyar, Jose & Silverio-Murillo, Adan & Sobrino, Fernanda, 2024. "Examining COVID-19’s disruptive effect on education in Mexican universities," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    12. Emara, Noha & Atkinson, Mycaeri & Karn, Sumit & Tryon, Tiffany, 2025. "Analyzing non-linear and interactive impacts of distance learning on college enrollment post-COVID-19," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 2112-2125.
    13. Elisa Failache & Noemí Katzkowicz & Cecilia Parada & Martina Querejeta & Tatiana Rosá, 2024. "Gendered Impacts of COVID-19 on University Enrollment and Major Choices," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 24-05, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    14. Etienne Dagorn & Elena Claudia Meroni & Léonard Moulin, 2025. "Shifting preferences: COVID-19 and higher education application," Post-Print hal-05198490, HAL.
    15. Eric Bettinger & Robert Fairlie & Anastasia Kapuza & Elena Kardanova & Prashant Loyalka & Andrey Zakharov, 2023. "Diminishing Marginal Returns to Computer‐Assisted Learning," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 552-570, March.
    16. Andrea Barigazzi & Claudia Zola, 2025. "Postsecondary Education Attendance and the Business Cycle in Europe. Is the Future of Young Adults Related to the Welfare Regime?," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 66(7), pages 1-38, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education

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