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World Technology Shocks and the Real Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate

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  • Lambrias, Kyriacos

Abstract

We extend the empirical SVAR literature on real exchange rates by extracting a common stochastic trend in productivity, interpreted as a permanent world technology shock. Overall, we find that innovations to world technology constitute an important, albeit not the dominant, source of movements in the real euro-dollar exchange rate. First, the dollar appreciates significantly in response to such an impulse. Second, the world technology shock accounts for approximately one-fifth of the variance of the forecast error in the real euro-dollar rate at business-cycle frequencies. Our results are in line with previous studies who find that demand or nominal shocks are the dominant sources of fluctuations in relative prices and provides limited support to productivity-based models of real exchange rate determination.

Suggested Citation

  • Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2011. "World Technology Shocks and the Real Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," TSE Working Papers 11-261, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  • Handle: RePEc:tse:wpaper:25315
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    Cited by:

    1. Kyriacos Lambrias, 2013. "News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements," BCL working papers 83, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    2. Lambrias, Kyriacos, 2016. "Real exchange rates and international co-movement: news-shocks and non-tradable goods with complete markets," Working Paper Series 1946, European Central Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate; World Technology Shocks; Structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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