IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/tiu/tiutis/8d75122f-0eb8-4517-af54-8ffb1773dbab.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

U.S. Municipal Yields and Unfunded State Pension Liabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Lekniute, Z.
  • Beetsma, R.M.W.J.

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

  • Ponds, Eduard

    (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management)

Abstract

We present empirical evidence that municipal bond yields are increasing in the pension debt towards U.S. state civil servants. However, positive yield effects of both pension and explicit debt are found only for the period since the start of the crisis, suggesting that the crisis triggered awareness of budgetary sustainability. The marginal yield effect of higher pension debt is smaller than that of higher explicit debt, but still economically meaningful. The effect of higher pension debt seems stronger when using market values of pension assets than actuarial values, suggesting that investors pay more attention to market values.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Lekniute, Z. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Ponds, Eduard, 2017. "U.S. Municipal Yields and Unfunded State Pension Liabilities," Other publications TiSEM 8d75122f-0eb8-4517-af54-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:8d75122f-0eb8-4517-af54-8ffb1773dbab
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://pure.uvt.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/20208506/P20170406_dp009_Lekniute_1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Pierre Aubry & Caroline V. Crawford & Alicia H. Munnell, 2017. "How Have Municipal Bond Markets Reacted to Pension Reform?," Issues in Brief ibslp57, Center for Retirement Research.
    2. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Pennacchi, George G., 2016. "Discounting pension liabilities: funding versus value," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 254-284, July.
    3. Aleksandar Andonov & Rob M.M.J. Bauer & K.J. Martijn Cremers, 2017. "Pension Fund Asset Allocation and Liability Discount Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2555-2595.
    4. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    5. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Ieva Sakalauskaite, 2017. "Long-term Interest Rates and Public Debt Maturity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 84(335), pages 541-558, July.
    6. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2014. "Decomposing Euro-Area Sovereign Spreads: Credit and Liquidity Risks," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2103-2151.
    7. Robert Novy‐Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1211-1249, August.
    8. Hastie, K. Larry, 1972. "Determinants of Municipal Bond Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 1729-1748, June.
    9. Jin, Li & Merton, Robert C. & Bodie, Zvi, 2006. "Do a firm's equity returns reflect the risk of its pension plan?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-26, July.
    10. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2014. "Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-114.
    11. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Lekniūtė, Zina & Beetsma, Roel & Ponds, Eduard, 2018. "A value-based assessment of alternative US state pension plans," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(2), pages 129-169, April.
    13. Alicia H. Munnell & Jean-Pierre Aubry & Josh Hurwitz & Madeline Medenica, 2013. "The Funding of State and Local Pensions: 2012-2016," Issues in Brief ibslp32, Center for Retirement Research.
    14. Alt, James E. & Lassen, David Dreyer, 2006. "Fiscal transparency, political parties, and debt in OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1403-1439, August.
    15. James E. Alt & David Dreyer Lassen & Shanna Rose, 2006. "The Causes of Fiscal Transparency: Evidence from the American States," EPRU Working Paper Series 06-02, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    16. Bhanot, Karan & Burns, Natasha & Hunter, Delroy & Williams, Michael, 2014. "News spillovers from the Greek debt crisis: Impact on the Eurozone financial sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 51-63.
    17. Eduard Ponds & Clara Severinson & Juan Yermo, 2011. "Funding in Public Sector Pension Plans - International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 17082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Reck, Jacqueline L. & Wilson, Earl R., 2006. "Information transparency and pricing in the municipal bond secondary market," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-31.
    19. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & de Jong, Frank & Widijanto, Daniel, 2013. "Spread the news: The impact of news on the European sovereign bond markets during the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 83-101.
    20. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2014. "The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 193-229, February.
    21. Alt, James & Lassen, David Dreyer & Wehner, Joachim, 2014. "It isn't just about Greece: domestic politics, transparency and fiscal gimmickry in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 57639, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    22. Alicia H. Munnell & Laura Quinby, 2012. "Legal Constraints on Changes in State and Local Pensions," State and Local Pension Plans Briefs ibslp25, Center for Retirement Research, revised Aug 2012.
    23. Bohn, Henning & Inman, Robert P., 1996. "Balanced-budget rules and public deficits: evidence from the U.S. states," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 13-76, December.
    24. James E. Alt & David Dreyer Lassen & Shanna Rose, 2006. "The Causes of Fiscal Transparency: Evidence from the U.S. States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(si), pages 1-2.
    25. Alicia H. Munnell & Laura Quinby, 2012. "Legal Constraints on Changes in State and Local Pensions," Issues in Brief ibslp25, Center for Retirement Research, revised Aug 2012.
    26. Alt, James & Lassen, David Dreyer & Wehner, Joachim, 2014. "It Isn't Just about Greece: Domestic Politics, Transparency and Fiscal Gimmickry in Europe," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(04), pages 707-716, October.
    27. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 182-213, May.
    28. Henning Bohn & Robert P. Inman, "undated". "Balanced Budget Rules and Public Deficits: Evidence from the U.S. States (Reprint 060)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 10-96, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    29. Alicia H. Munnell & Jean-Pierre Aubry & Josh Hurwitz & Madeline Medenica, 2013. "The Funding of State and Local Pensions: 2012-2016," State and Local Pension Plans Briefs ibslp32, Center for Retirement Research.
    30. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2009. "The Liabilities and Risks of State-Sponsored Pension Plans," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 191-210, Fall.
    31. Philipp Mohl & David Sondermann, 2013. "Has political communication during the crisis impacted sovereign bond spreads in the euro area?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 48-61, January.
    32. Munnell, Alicia H. & Aubry, Jean-Pierre & Cafarelli, Mark, 2016. "COLA cuts in state-local pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 311-332, July.
    33. Ari Aisen & David Hauner, 2013. "Budget deficits and interest rates: a fresh perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2501-2510, June.
    34. Jean-Pierre Aubry & Caroline V. Crawford & Alicia H. Munnell, 2017. "How Have Municipal Bond Markets Reacted to Pension Reform?," State and Local Pension Plans Briefs ibslp57, Center for Retirement Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark J. Garmaise & Gabriel Natividad, 2024. "Fiscal windfalls and entrepreneurship: fostering entry or promoting incumbents?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 62(1), pages 133-158, January.
    2. Jha, Chandan Kumar & Joshi, Swarup, 2023. "Municipal bankruptcies and crime," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Nakhmurina, Anya, 2018. "Does Fiscal Monitoring Make Better Governments? Evidence from US Municipalities," Working Papers 284, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lekniute, Z. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Ponds, Eduard, 2016. "Fooling the Market? Municipal Yields and Unfunded State Pension Liabilities," Other publications TiSEM 591eb14d-c598-4297-a775-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    2. Kenechukwu E. Anadu & James Bohn & Lina Lu & Matthew Pritsker & Andrei Zlate, 2019. "Reach for Yield by U.S. Public Pension Funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-048, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Timothy C. Irwin, 2015. "Defining The Government'S Debt And Deficit," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 711-732, September.
    4. Lorenzo Cicatiello & Elina Simone & Giuseppe Lucio Gaeta, 2017. "Political determinants of fiscal transparency: a panel data empirical investigation," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 315-336, November.
    5. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Kea Baret & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "National fiscal rules and fiscal discipline in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(20), pages 2337-2359, April.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Sloof, Randolph, 2022. "The political economy of fiscal transparency and independent fiscal councils," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Hansen, Daniel, 2020. "The effectiveness of fiscal institutions: International financial flogging or domestic constraint?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Florian Dorn & Stefanie Gaebler & Felix Roesel, 2021. "Ineffective fiscal rules? The effect of public sector accounting standards on budgets, efficiency, and accountability," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 387-412, March.
    9. Mark Schelker, 2012. "The influence of auditor term length and term limits on US state general obligation bond ratings," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 27-49, January.
    10. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori & Jesper Hanson & Frank De Jong, 2018. "Cross‐Border Auction Cycle Effects of Sovereign Bond Issuance in the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1401-1440, October.
    11. Abigail Allen & Reining C. Petacchi, 2023. "Preparer Opposition and Strategic Implementation of Governmental Accounting Standards: Evidence from Public Pension Accounting Reform," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4259-4282, July.
    12. Markus Reischmann, 2016. "Empirical Studies on Public Debt and Fiscal Transfers," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 63.
    13. Beetsma, Roel & de Jong, Frank & Giuliodori, Massimo & Widijanto, Daniel, 2017. "Realized (co)variances of eurozone sovereign yields during the crisis: The impact of news and the Securities Markets Programme," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 14-31.
    14. Novy-Marx, Robert & Rauh, Joshua D., 2014. "Linking benefits to investment performance in US public pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 47-61.
    15. Malešević Perović, Lena, 2015. "The impact of fiscal positions on government bond yields in CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 301-316.
    16. Jemima Peppel-Srebrny, 2018. "Government borrowing cost and balance sheets: do assets matter?," Economics Series Working Papers 860, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    17. Lena Malešević-Perović, 2016. "Government Debt-Interest Rate Nexus in G7 Countries over a Long Horizon," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 63(5), pages 603-625, December.
    18. Boon, L.N. & Brière, M. & Rigot, S., 2018. "Regulation and pension fund risk-taking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 23-41.
    19. Reischmann, Markus, 2016. "Creative accounting and electoral motives: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 243-257.
    20. Alex Hathaway & Carolyn Bourdeaux & Emily Franklin, 2019. "Fiscal Transparency and Accountability," Center for State and Local Finance Working Paper Series cslf1912, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tiu:tiutis:8d75122f-0eb8-4517-af54-8ffb1773dbab. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard Broekman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/about/schools/economics-and-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.