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Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses

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  • Robert Novy-Marx
  • Joshua D. Rauh

Abstract

During the last quarter of 2008, financial losses in state pension funds varied from 12 percent to 68 percent of the revenue generated by the state government. We quantify a sovereign default channel in the state municipal market by examining how changes in bond spreads vary with state pension fund losses, controlling for credit ratings and various measures of the state's fiscal strength. Municipal bond spreads rose by 7-15 basis points for each 10 percent of state-generated revenue lost by states in the lower half of the credit quality spectrum. (JEL H71, H72, H74, H75)

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  • Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 182-213, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:4:y:2012:i:2:p:182-213
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.4.2.182
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1251-1274.
    3. Lekniūtė, Zina & Beetsma, Roel & Ponds, Eduard, 2019. "U.S. municipal yields and unfunded state pension liabilities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 15-32.
    4. Cheng, Stephanie F. & De Franco, Gus & Lin, Pengkai, 2023. "Marijuana liberalization and public finance: A capital market perspective on the passage of medical use laws," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1).
    5. Gao, Pengjie & Lee, Chang & Murphy, Dermot, 2020. "Financing dies in darkness? The impact of newspaper closures on public finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 445-467.
    6. Tran, Nhu & Uzmanoglu, Cihan, 2022. "COVID-19, lockdowns, and the municipal bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Butler, Alexander W. & Yi, Hanyi, 2022. "Aging and public financing costs: Evidence from U.S. municipal bond markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    8. Huixin Bi & W. Blake Marsh, 2020. "Flight to Liquidity or Safety? Recent Evidence from the Municipal Bond Market," Research Working Paper RWP 20-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    9. Andrew F. Haughwout & Benjamin Hyman & Or Shachar, 2021. "The Option Value of Municipal Liquidity: Evidence from Federal Lending Cutoffs during COVID-19," Staff Reports 988, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Gao, Pengjie & Lee, Chang & Murphy, Dermot, 2019. "Municipal borrowing costs and state policies for distressed municipalities," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 404-426.
    11. Nakhmurina, Anya, 2018. "Does Fiscal Monitoring Make Better Governments? Evidence from US Municipalities," Working Papers 284, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    12. Ivan T. & Tom Zimmermann, 2021. "The "Privatization" of Municipal Debt," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 062, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    13. Kenechukwu E. Anadu & James Bohn & Lina Lu & Matthew Pritsker & Andrei Zlate, 2019. "Reach for Yield by U.S. Public Pension Funds," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 19-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Tran, Nhu & Uzmanoglu, Cihan, 2023. "Reprint of: COVID-19, lockdowns, and the municipal bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Davis, Matthew & Ferreira, Fernando, 2022. "Housing disease and public school finances," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    16. Jean Burson & John B. Carlson & O. Emre Ergungor & Patricia Waiwood, 2013. "Do public pension obligations affect state funding costs?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1301, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    17. Farrell, Michael & Murphy, Dermot & Painter, Marcus & Zhang, Guangli, 2023. "The complexity yield puzzle: A textual analysis of municipal bond disclosures," Working Papers 338, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare

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    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2012) in ReplicationWiki

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