IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/pubcho/v158y2014i1p21-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The political economy of unfunded public pension liabilities

Author

Listed:
  • Dashle Kelley

Abstract

This paper applies a public choice approach to the problem of unfunded pension liabilities and adopts the methodology of Congleton and Shughart ( 1990 ) to model underfunding of state-level public pension plans using the median voter theorem, along with the theory of “capture” by special interest groups, and a combined model of the two. With panel data from 2001 to 2009, the paper finds that the combined model provides the strongest explanation for the current levels of unfunded liabilities; hence, both median voter preferences and special interest group influence are affecting political outcomes. The special interest group model slightly outperforms the median voter model in direct comparisons. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Dashle Kelley, 2014. "The political economy of unfunded public pension liabilities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 21-38, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:158:y:2014:i:1:p:21-38
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-012-0049-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11127-012-0049-3
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11127-012-0049-3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Congleton, Roger D & Shughart, William F, II, 1990. "The Growth of Social Security: Electoral Push or Political Pull?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(1), pages 109-132, January.
    2. Mitchell, Olivia S & Smith, Robert S, 1994. "Pension Funding in the Public Sector," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 76(2), pages 278-290, May.
    3. Bohn, Henning, 2011. "Should public retirement plans be fully funded?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 195-219, April.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    5. Congleton, Roger D & Bennett, Randall W, 1995. "On the Political Economy of State Highway Expenditures: Some Evidence of the Relative Performance of Alternative Public Choice Models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 84(1-2), pages 1-24, July.
    6. Munnell, Alicia H. & Aubry, Jean-Pierre & Quinby, Laura, 2011. "Public pension funding in practice," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 247-268, April.
    7. Amy B. Monahan, 2010. "Public Pension Plan Reform: The Legal Framework," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 5(4), pages 617-646, October.
    8. Ahmed, Sultan & Greene, Kenneth V, 2000. "Is the Median Voter a Clear-Cut Winner? Comparing the Median Voter Theory and Competing Theories in Explaining Local Government Spending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(3-4), pages 207-230, December.
    9. Robert Novy‐Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1211-1249, August.
    10. Splinter, David, 2017. "State pension contributions and fiscal stress," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 65-80, January.
    11. Ehrenberg, Ronald G. & Schwarz, Joshua L., 1987. "Public-sector labor markets," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & R. Layard (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 22, pages 1219-1260, Elsevier.
    12. Robert L. Clark & Lee A. Craig & John Sabelhaus, 2011. "State and Local Retirement Plans in the United States," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13685.
    13. Congleton, Roger D, 2001. "Rational Ignorance, Rational Voter Expectations, and Public Policy: A Discrete Informational Foundation for Fiscal Illusion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 107(1-2), pages 35-64, April.
    14. Brown, Jeffrey R. & Clark, Robert & Rauh, Joshua, 2011. "The economics of state and local pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 161-172, April.
    15. Jeffrey R. Brown & Robert Clark & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "The Economics of State and Local Public Pensions," NBER Working Papers 16792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2009. "The Liabilities and Risks of State-Sponsored Pension Plans," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 191-210, Fall.
    17. Roger Congleton, 2007. "Informational limits to democratic public policy: The jury theorem, yardstick competition, and ignorance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 132(3), pages 333-352, September.
    18. Mumy, Gene E, 1978. "The Economics of Local Government Pensions and Pension Funding," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(3), pages 517-527, June.
    19. Jeffrey R. Brown & David W. Wilcox, 2009. "Discounting State and Local Pension Liabilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 538-542, May.
    20. Eichenberger Reiner & Stadelmann David, 2010. "How Federalism Protects Future Generations from Today's Public Debts," Review of Law & Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 395-420, December.
    21. Olivia S. Mitchell & Robert S. Smith, "undated". "Public Sector Pension Funding," Pension Research Council Working Papers 94-4, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
    22. H. Spencer Banzhaf & Wallace E. Oates, 2012. "On Fiscal Illusion and Ricardian Equivalence in Local Public Finance," NBER Working Papers 18040, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Gary S. Becker, 1983. "A Theory of Competition Among Pressure Groups for Political Influence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(3), pages 371-400.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kenechukwu E. Anadu & James Bohn & Lina Lu & Matthew Pritsker & Andrei Zlate, 2019. "Reach for Yield by U.S. Public Pension Funds," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 19-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Juan Manuel Pérez-Salamero González, 2018. "Actuarial accounting for a notional defined contribution scheme combining retirement and longterm care benefits," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2018-16, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    3. Roberto Basile & Valerio Filoso, 2018. "The market value of political partisanship: Quasi‐experimental evidence from municipal elections," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 97(S1), pages 193-209, March.
    4. Beetsma, Roel & Komada, Oliwia & Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna, 2021. "The political (in)stability of funded social security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Gang Chen & David S. T. Matkin, 2017. "Actuarial Inputs and the Valuation Of Public Pension Liabilities and Contribution Requirements: A Simulation Approach," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 68-87, March.
    6. Christian Dippel, 2019. "Political Parties Do Matter in U.S. Cities ... For Their Unfunded Pensions," NBER Working Papers 25601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Bagchi, Sutirtha & Naughton, James P., 2021. "Public-sector pension plans and the discount rate assumption: The role of political incentives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. John A. Dove & Courtney A. Collins & Daniel J. Smith, 2018. "The impact of public pension board of trustee composition on state bond ratings," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 51-73, February.
    9. Bagchi, Sutirtha, 2019. "The effects of political competition on the generosity of public-sector pension plans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 439-468.
    10. Trang Hoang & Craig S. Maher, 2022. "Fiscal condition, institutional constraints, and public pension contribution: are pension contribution shortfalls fiscal illusion?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 93-124, December.
    11. Bernardo P. Schettini & Rafael Terra, 2020. "Electoral incentives and Public Employees’ Retirement Systems in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 79-103, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Dippel, 2019. "Political Parties Do Matter in U.S. Cities ... For Their Unfunded Pensions," NBER Working Papers 25601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Godbout, Luc & Trudel, Yves & St-Cerny, Suzie, 2013. "Le régime de rentes du Québec : le rendement différencié selon l’année de prise de la retraite de 1968 jusqu’en 2056," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(2), pages 89-113, Juin.
    3. John A. Dove & Courtney A. Collins & Daniel J. Smith, 2018. "The impact of public pension board of trustee composition on state bond ratings," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 51-73, February.
    4. Jeffrey R. Brown & Robert Clark & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "The Economics of State and Local Public Pensions," NBER Working Papers 16792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mohan, Nancy & Zhang, Ting, 2014. "An analysis of risk-taking behavior for public defined benefit pension plans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 403-419.
    6. Anzia, Sarah F. & Moe, Terry M., 2016. "Interest Groups on the Inside: The Governance of Public Pension Funds," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt8c82g4hf, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    7. Robert K. Triest & Bo Zhao, 2013. "The role of economic, fiscal, and financial shocks in the evolution of public sector pension funding," Working Papers 13-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    8. Vincent Touzé, 2011. "Le financement des retraites aux États-Unis," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03461438, HAL.
    9. Sutirtha Bagchi, 2013. "The Effects of Political Competition on the Funding and Generosity of Public-Sector Pension Plans," 2013 Papers pba941, Job Market Papers.
    10. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 182-213, May.
    11. Meijdam, A.C. & Ponds, E.H.M., 2013. "On the Optimal Degree Of Funding Of Public Sector Pension Plans," Other publications TiSEM 1c5b7af1-e1ee-4d01-a341-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. Castañeda, Pablo & Castro, Rubén & Fajnzylber, Eduardo & Medina, Juan Pablo & Villatoro, Félix, 2021. "Saving for the future: Evaluating the sustainability and design of Pension Reserve Funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    13. Holger Sieg & Daniele Coen-Pirani & Jeffrey Brinkman, 2015. "The Political Economy of Underfunded Municipal Pension Plans," 2015 Meeting Papers 345, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Bernardo P. Schettini & Rafael Terra, 2020. "Electoral incentives and Public Employees’ Retirement Systems in Brazilian municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 184(1), pages 79-103, July.
    15. Jeffrey Diebold & Vincent Reitano & Bruce McDonald, 2018. "Sweat The Small Stuff: Strategic Selection Of Pension Policies Used To Defer Required Contributions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 505-525, July.
    16. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises," NBER Working Papers 18489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Vincent Touzé, 2011. "Le financement des retraites aux États-Unis. Impact de la crise et tendances de long terme," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 63-112.
    18. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hi4ch92c6 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Lekniute, Z. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & Ponds, E.H.M., 2014. "A Value-Based Approach to the Redesign of US State Pension Plans," Other publications TiSEM 3156027d-33c6-4045-963a-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Vincent Touzé, 2011. "Le financement des retraites aux États-Unis," Post-Print hal-03461438, HAL.
    21. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Linking Benefits to Investment Performance in US Public Pension Systems," NBER Working Papers 18491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:158:y:2014:i:1:p:21-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.