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The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises

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  • Robert Novy-Marx
  • Joshua Rauh

Abstract

We calculate increases in contributions required to achieve full funding of state and local pension systems in the United States over 30 years. Without policy changes, contributions would have to increase by 2.5 times, reaching 14.1 percent of the total own revenue generated by state and local governments. This represents a tax increase of $1,385 per household per year, around half of which would go to pay down legacy liabilities while half would fund the cost of new promises. We examine sensitivity to asset return assumptions, wage correlations, the treatment of workers not currently in Social Security, and endogenous geographical shifts in the tax base.

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  • Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2014. "The Revenue Demands of Public Employee Pension Promises," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 193-229, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:6:y:2014:i:1:p:193-229
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.6.1.193
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    3. Kenechukwu E. Anadu & James Bohn & Lina Lu & Matthew Pritsker & Andrei Zlate, 2019. "Reach for Yield by U.S. Public Pension Funds," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 19-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Xavier Aleksander Andonov & Xavier Yael V. Hochberg & Joshua D. Rauh, 2016. "Pension Fund Board Composition and Investment Performance: Evidence from Private Equity," Economics Working Papers 16104, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    5. Bo Zhao & David Coyne, 2017. "Walking a Tightrope: Are U.S. State and Local Governments on a Fiscally Sustainable Path?," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 3-23, September.
    6. Lutz, Byron & Sheiner, Louise, 2014. "The fiscal stress arising from state and local retiree health obligations," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 130-146.
    7. Lekniūtė, Zina & Beetsma, Roel & Ponds, Eduard, 2019. "U.S. municipal yields and unfunded state pension liabilities," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 15-32.
    8. Anping Chen & Nicolaas Groenewold, 2017. "An increase in the retirement age in China: the regional economic effects," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 702-721, February.
    9. Mark A. Zupan, 2015. "Rent-Seeking on the Supply Side of Politics," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(03), pages 06-14, October.
    10. Kim, Dongwoo & Koedel, Cory & Xiang, P. Brett, 2021. "The trade-off between pension costs and salary expenditures in the public sector," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 151-168, January.
    11. Matthew M. Chingos & Martin R. West, 2015. "Which Teachers Choose a Defined Contribution Pension Plan? Evidence from the Florida Retirement System," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 10(2), pages 193-222, March.
    12. Jeffrey Diebold & Vincent Reitano & Bruce McDonald, 2018. "Sweat The Small Stuff: Strategic Selection Of Pension Policies Used To Defer Required Contributions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 505-525, July.
    13. Johnston, Andrew C., 2021. "Preferences, Selection, and the Structure of Teacher Pay," IZA Discussion Papers 14831, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Mark A. Zupan, 2015. "Rent-Seeking on the Supply Side of Politics," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(3), pages 06-14, October.
    15. Ben Backes & Ben Backes & Dan Goldhaberb & Cyrus Grout & Cory Koedel & Shawn Ni & Michael Podgursky & P. Brett Xiang & Zeyu Xu, 2015. "Benefit or Burden? On the Intergenerational Inequity of Teacher Pension Plans," Working Papers 1517, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised Apr 2016.
    16. Cory Koedel & P. Brett Xiang, 2017. "Pension Enhancements and the Retention of Public Employees," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 70(2), pages 519-551, March.
    17. Novy-Marx, Robert & Rauh, Joshua D., 2014. "Linking benefits to investment performance in US public pension systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 47-61.
    18. Kim, Dongwoo, 2020. "Worker retirement responses to pension incentives: Do they respond to pension wealth?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 365-385.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets

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