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Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits

In: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk

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  • John Geanokoplos
  • Stephen P. Zeldes

Abstract

One measure of the health of the Social Security system is the difference between the market value of the trust fund and the present value of benefits accrued to date. How should present values be computed for this calculation in light of future uncertainties? We think it is important to use market value. Since claims on accrued benefits are not currently traded in financial markets, we cannot directly observe a market value. In this paper, we use a model to estimate what the market price for these claims would be if they were traded. In valuing such claims, the key issue is properly adjusting for risk. The traditional actuarial approach -- the approach currently used by the Social Security Administration in generating its most widely cited numbers -- ignores risk and instead simply discounts "expected" future flows back to the present using a risk-free rate. If benefits are risky and this risk is priced by the market, then actuarial estimates will differ from market value. Effectively, market valuation uses a discount rate that incorporates a risk premium. Developing the proper adjustment for risk requires a careful examination of the stream of future benefits. The U.S. Social Security system is "wage-indexed": future benefits depend directly on future realizations of the economy-wide average wage index. We assume that there is a positive long-run correlation between average labor earnings and the stock market. We then use derivative pricing methods standard in the finance literature to compute the market price of individual claims on future benefits, which depend on age and macro state variables. Finally, we aggregate the market value of benefits across all cohorts to arrive at an overall value of accrued benefits. We find that the difference between market valuation and "actuarial" valuation is large, especially when valuing the benefits of younger cohorts. Overall, the market value of accrued benefits is only 4/5 of that implied by
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Suggested Citation

  • John Geanokoplos & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2010. "Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk, pages 213-233, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:3042
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    2. Alexander W. Blocker & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Stephen A. Ross & Sergio Villar Vallenas, 2019. "The True Cost of Social Security," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 131-163.
    3. John Geanakoplos & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2009. "Reforming Social Security with Progressive Personal Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Policy in a Changing Environment, pages 73-121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Deborah Lucas, 2007. "Valuing & Hedging: Defined Benefit Pension Obligations - The Role of Stocks Revisited," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 169, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    5. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    6. William Goetzmann, 2005. "More Social Security, Not Less," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm449, Yale School of Management.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Adrien Verdelhan, 2013. "The Wealth-Consumption Ratio," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 38-94.
    2. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2012. "Fiscal Imbalances and Borrowing Costs: Evidence from State Investment Losses," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 182-213, May.
    3. Nick Draper & Casper Ewijk & Marcel Lever & Roel Mehlkopf, 2014. "Stochastic Generational Accounting Applied to Reforms of Dutch Occupational Pensions," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 287-307, September.
    4. Jasmina Hasanhodzic & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2017. "Valuing Government Obligations When Markets are Incomplete," NBER Working Papers 24092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Markus Knell & Reinhard Koman, 2022. "Pension Entitlements and Net Wealth in Austria (Markus Knell, Reinhard Koman)," Working Papers 238, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    6. Joshua D. Rauh & Irina Stefanescu & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2020. "Cost Saving and the Freezing of Corporate Pension Plans," NBER Working Papers 27251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Alexander W. Blocker & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Stephen A. Ross & Sergio Villar Vallenas, 2019. "The True Cost of Social Security," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 131-163.
    8. Frank Jong, 2012. "Portfolio Implications of Cointegration Between Labor Income and Dividends," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(4), pages 397-412, December.
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    10. Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Andrew A. Samwick, 2018. "The Welfare Cost of Perceived Policy Uncertainty: Evidence from Social Security," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 275-307, February.
    11. Ilja Boelaars & Roel Mehlkopf, 2018. "Optimal risk-sharing in pension funds when stock and labor markets are co-integrated," DNB Working Papers 595, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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