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The Intergenerational Transfer of Public Pension Promises

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Novy-Marx
  • Joshua D. Rauh

Abstract

The value of pension promises already made by US state governments will grow to approximately $7.9 trillion in 15 years. We study investment strategies of state pension plans and estimate the distribution of future funding outcomes. We conservatively predict a 50% chance of aggregate underfunding greater than $750 billion and a 25% chance of at least $1.75 trillion (in 2005 dollars). Adjusting for risk, the true intergenerational transfer is substantially larger. Insuring both taxpayers against funding deficits and plan participants against benefit reductions would cost almost $2 trillion today, even though governments portray state pensions as almost fully funded.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2008. "The Intergenerational Transfer of Public Pension Promises," NBER Working Papers 14343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14343
    Note: AG AP CF PE
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua D. Rauh, 2015. "Why City Pension Problems Have Not Improved, and a Roadmap Forward," Economics Working Papers 15101, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    2. Vincent Touzé, 2010. "Le système de retraite américain : impact de la crise et tendances de long terme," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-27, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    3. Gérard Cornilleau & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak & Vincent Touzé, 2010. "Les réformes des retraites en Europe dans la crise," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2010-17, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. Vincent Touzé, 2011. "Le financement des retraites aux États-Unis," Post-Print hal-03461438, HAL.
    5. Robert L. Clark & Lee A. Craig & John Sabelhaus, 2011. "State and Local Retirement Plans in the United States," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13685.
    6. Abigail Allen & Reining C. Petacchi, 2023. "Preparer Opposition and Strategic Implementation of Governmental Accounting Standards: Evidence from Public Pension Accounting Reform," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4259-4282, July.
    7. Ponds, E.H.M. & Severinson, C. & Yermo, J., 2012. "Implicit debt in public sector plans : An international comparison," Other publications TiSEM 8263bb65-8b50-4890-9252-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    8. Eduard Ponds & Clara Severinson & Juan Yermo, 2011. "Funding in Public Sector Pension Plans: International Evidence," OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions 8, OECD Publishing.
    9. Robert Novy-Marx & Joshua D. Rauh, 2010. "Policy Options for State Pension Systems and Their Impact on Plan Liabilities," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of State and Local Pensions, pages 173-194, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S. & Rogalla, Ralph, 2009. "Managing contribution and capital market risk in a funded public defined benefit plan: Impact of CVaR cost constraints," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 25-34, August.
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hai2o91j4 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. David G. Lenze, 2009. "Accrual Measures of Pension-Related Compensation and Wealth of State and Local Government Workers," BEA Working Papers 0054, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hai2o91j4 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Cory Koedel & Shawn Ni & Michael Podgursky, 2014. "Who Benefits from Pension Enhancements?," Education Finance and Policy, MIT Press, vol. 9(2), pages 165-192, March.
    15. Jeffrey R. Brown & David W. Wilcox, 2009. "Discounting State and Local Pension Liabilities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 538-542, May.
    16. Ahmed, Javed & Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2018. "Made poorer by choice: Worker outcomes in social security vs. private retirement accounts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 311-322.
    17. Susan Thorp & Hardy Hulley & Rebecca McKibbin & Andreas Pedersen, 2009. "Means-Tested Income Support, Portfolio Choice and Decumulation in Retirement," Research Paper Series 248, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h8492c58l is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09hi4ch92c6 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Alexandre Laurin & William B.P. Robson, 2009. "Supersized Superannuation: The Startling Fair-Value Cost of Federal Government Pensions," C.D. Howe Institute Backgrounder, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 122, December.
    21. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h8492c58l is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing

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