Premature Deindustrialization through the Lens of Occupations: Which Jobs, Why, and Where?

A growing literature documents that deindustrialization has often set in at historically low levels of income in recent decades. However, there is little evidence on which kind of jobs are disappearing prematurely, and some debate on whether the phenomenon is transitory or structural. Using a new data set on manufacturing employment by occupation, this article makes four propositions about `premature deindustrialization': First and second, the disappearing jobs have been among the least skilled, yet most formal. Third, they are considered to be vulnerable to automation by ICT. Fourth, the phenomenon pertains most clearly to high and middle income countries, as low income countries have been spared from premature job losses. Overall, the employment patterns are consistent with a pervasive shift of the `automation frontier' separating tasks that are automated from those which are not, and suggest a structural decrease in the ability of manufacturing to employ unskilled labor productively.