Shock transmission in the International Food Trade Network. A Data-driven Analysis

Food Security is a longstanding concern worldwide. The expansion of global food markets brings benefits but also risks, such as shock transmission within the global network of trade relations. We focus on this last issue, from an empirical point of view, by analysing the di usion of trade shocks - defined as relevant drops in exported quantities - during the period 1986 - 2011, for four major staples (wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans) both at country level and global scale. We find that: (i) income per capita of importing countries matters in shock propagation; (ii) developing countries tend to absorb most of the negative export variation (i.e., the trade shock), and (iii) global food prices and real (tonnes) uxes of commodities are only weakly correlated, meaning that a quantity-based investigation provides additional information with respect to a price-based analysis. This work o ers a novel framework, complementary to the price-based literature, for the definition and measurement of the propagation of international food shocks.