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Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data

Author

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  • Jérôme Creel

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Paola Veroni

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Francesco Saraceno

Abstract

We estimate a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model of the French economy. The econometric method originates in Blanchard and Perotti [Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2002] but owes also extensively to the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) that investigates the interactions between government surplus, debt accumulation and price dynamics. We have the objective, on the one hand, of assessing the effects of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on the economy; and, on the other, of studying the strategic interactions between fiscal and monetary authorities. As a consequence, the theoretical restrictions to identify our model are derived from a FTPL framework. Our estimations reveal so-called Keynesian features of fiscal and monetary shocks; meanwhile, they are consistent with the prediction of the FTPL as regards price dynamics. Although the first part of our findings agree with most of the recent literature on the subject, the non-rejection of the FTPL is an originality.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Paola Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Sciences Po publications 2005-12, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1423
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France. Les effets à court et à long terme," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 58(5), pages 1035-1053.
    2. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick, 2009. "Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2011.
    3. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2006. "Estimating the impact of public investment in the united Kingdom : Has the Golden Rule of Public Finance Made a Difference ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2681, Sciences Po.
    4. Francesco Caprioli & Sandro Momigliano, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks with debt-stabilizing budgetary policies in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 839, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; Fiscal theory of the price level; Structural VAR; politique fiscale; politique monétaire;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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