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Impact of food inflation on poverty in the Philippines

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  • Tomoki Fujii

    (School of Economics, Singapore Management Unversity)

Abstract

We simulate the impact of actual food price increase between June 2006 and June 2008 on poverty across different areas and whether the household’s main income source is agricultural activities. We explicitly treat heterogeneity in food price changes and the patterns of consumption and production by merging a expenditure survey dataset and a price dataset at the provincial level or lower. While the increase of head count index is larger for non-agricultural households than agricultural households, the opposite is true for the poverty gap and poverty severity measures, because poor agricultural households are particularly vulnerable to food inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomoki Fujii, 2011. "Impact of food inflation on poverty in the Philippines," Working Papers 14-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:14-2011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Balié, Jean & Valera, Harold Glenn, 2020. "Domestic and international impacts of the rice trade policy reform in the Philippines," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    3. Echeverría, Lucía & Molina, José Alberto, 2021. "Poor vs Non-Poor Households in Uruguay: Welfare Differences from Food Price Changes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 890, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    4. Abrigo, Michael Ralph M., 2016. "Who Weans with Commodity Price Shocks? Rice Prices and Breastfeeding in the Philippines," Discussion Papers DP 2016-28, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    5. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Correcting Inflation with Financial Dynamic Fundamentals: Which Adjustments Matter in Africa?," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 64-73, April.
    6. Rodriguez-Takeuchi, Laura & Imai, Katsushi S., 2013. "Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 227-236.
    7. Patricia Toledo & Roberto Duncan, 2024. "Forecasting food price inflation during global crises," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1087-1113, July.
    8. Asongu, Simplice, 2015. "Financial development in Africa - a critical examination," MPRA Paper 82131, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Coleman, Simeon, 2012. "Where Does the Axe Fall? Inflation Dynamics and Poverty Rates: Regional and Sectoral Evidence for Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(12), pages 2454-2467.
    10. Layani, Ghasem & Bakhshoodeh, Mohammad & Aghabeygi, Mona & Kurstal, Yaprak & Viaggi, Davide, 2020. "The impact of food price shocks on poverty and vulnerability of urban households in Iran," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 9(1), April.
    11. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2013. "Essays on Farm Household Decision-Making: Evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints 96azx, Center for Open Science.
    12. Agyapomaa Gyeke-Dako & Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor & Abel Mawuko Agoba & Festus Turkson & Emmanuel Abbey, 2022. "Central Bank Independence, Inflation, and Poverty in Africa," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(2), pages 211-236, June.
    13. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Natália Ferreira Trigo, 2024. "What is the effect of imported inflation and central bank credibility on the poor and rich?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(21), pages 2520-2543, May.
    14. Fujii, Tomoki, 2017. "Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application to the Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 69-84.
    15. Rulyusa Pratikto & Mohamad Ikhsan & B. Raksaka Mahi, 2015. "Unequal Impact of Price Changes in Indonesia," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 61, pages 180-195, December.
    16. Donni F. Anugrah & Danny Hermawan & Denny Lie & Solikin M. Juhro & Misbahol Yaqin, 2023. "Policy Mix: Supply-Side Policies To Address The Trend Of Rising Inflation," Working Papers WP/11/2023, Bank Indonesia.
    17. Tomoki Fujii, 2014. "Is urban food demand in the Philippines different from China?," Working Papers 18-2014, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
    18. Abrigo, Michael R.M., 2016. "Who Weans with Commodity Price Shocks? Rice Prices and Breastfeeding in the Philippines," Research Paper Series DP 2016-28, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    19. Sakai, Yoko & Estudillo, Jonna P. & Fuwa, Nobuhiko & Higuchi, Yuki & Sawada, Yasuyuki, 2017. "Do Natural Disasters Affect the Poor Disproportionately? Price Change and Welfare Impact in the Aftermath of Typhoon Milenyo in the Rural Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 16-26.
    20. Arfini, Filippo & Aghabeygi, Mona, 2018. "Evaluation of Welfare Effects of Rising Price of Food Imports in Italy," 162nd Seminar, April 26-27, 2018, Budapest, Hungary 271953, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    21. Yogeeswari Subramaniam & Tajul Ariffin Masron & Mastura A. Wahab & Md Aslam Mia, 2021. "The impact of microfinance on poverty and income inequality in developing countries," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 36-48, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    non-parametric regression; net consumption ratio; global food crisis; vulnerability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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