IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Optimal Public Investment, Growth, and Consumption: Fresh Evidence from African Countries

Listed author(s):
  • Augustin Kwasi Fosu, Yoseph Getachew, Thomas H.W. Ziesemer

This paper develops a model positing a nonlinear relationship between public investment and growth. The model is then applied to a panel of African countries using nonlinear estimating procedures. The growth-maximizing level of public investment is estimated at about 10 percent of GDP based on System GMM estimation. The paper further runs simulations, obtaining the constant optimal public investment share that maximizes the sum of discounted consumption as between 8:1 percent and 9:6 percent of GDP. Compared with the observed end-of-panel mean value of no more than 7:26 percent, these estimates suggest that there has been significant public under-investment in Africa.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econrsa.org/node/967
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Economic Research Southern Africa in its series Working Papers with number 471.

as
in new window

Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2014
Handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:471
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Newlands on Main, F0301 3rd Floor Mariendahl House, cnr Campground and Main Rds, Claremont, 7700 Cape Town

Phone: 021 671-3980
Fax: +27 21 671 3912
Web page: http://www.econrsa.org/

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
  2. David Alan Aschauer, 2000. "Do states optimize? Public capital and economic growth," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 34(3), pages 343-363.
  3. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
  4. Mark Dincecco & Mauricio Prado, 2012. "Warfare, fiscal capacity, and performance," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 171-203, September.
  5. Aschauer, David Alan, 2000. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: Issues of Quantity, Finance, and Efficiency," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(2), pages 391-406, January.
  6. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
  7. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
  8. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1997. "Productive government expenditures and long-run growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 183-204, January.
  9. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Easterley, William R. & Pack, Howard, 2001. "Is investment in Africa too low or too high : macro and micro evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2519, The World Bank.
  10. Pantelis Kalaitzidakis & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2011. "Military Spending And The Growth‐Maximizing Allocation Of Public Capital: A Cross‐Country Empirical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 1029-1041, October.
  11. Maurice J. G. Bun & Frank Windmeijer, 2010. "The weak instrument problem of the system GMM estimator in dynamic panel data models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(1), pages 95-126, 02.
  12. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2004. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-Run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 883-910, October.
  13. Bruno, Giovanni S.F., 2005. "Approximating the bias of the LSDV estimator for dynamic unbalanced panel data models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 361-366, June.
  14. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
  15. Michael Clemens & Samuel Bazzi, 2009. "Blunt Instruments: On Establishing the Causes of Economic Growth," Working Papers 171, Center for Global Development.
  16. Joshua Greene, 1989. "The External Debt Problem of Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(4), pages 836-874, December.
  17. Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
  18. Fedderke, J.W. & Perkins, P. & Luiz, J.M., 2006. "Infrastructural investment in long-run economic growth: South Africa 1875-2001," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1037-1059, June.
  19. Cavallo, Eduardo & Daude, Christian, 2011. "Public investment in developing countries: A blessing or a curse?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 65-81, March.
  20. Kocherlakota, Narayana R & Yi, Kei-Mu, 1996. "A Simple Time Series Test of Endogenous vs. Exogenous Growth Models: An Application to the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 126-134, February.
  21. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2008. "Fiscal policy and endogenous growth with public infrastructure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 57-87, January.
  22. Glomm, Gerhard & Ravikumar, B., 1994. "Public investment in infrastructure in a simple growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 1173-1187, November.
  23. Fedderke, J.W. & Bogetic, Z., 2009. "Infrastructure and Growth in South Africa: Direct and Indirect Productivity Impacts of 19 Infrastructure Measures," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1522-1539, September.
  24. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, 02.
  25. Basu, Parantap & Gillman, Max & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Inflation, human capital and Tobin's q," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1057-1074.
  26. Melvin Ayogu, 1999. "Before Prebendalism: A Positive Analysis of Core Infrastructure Investment in a Developing Fiscal Federalism," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 11(2), pages 169-198.
  27. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2000. " Government Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model with Elastic Labor Supply," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 2(4), pages 389-433.
  28. Everaert, Gerdie & Heylen, Freddy, 2004. "Public capital and long-term labour market performance in Belgium," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 95-112, January.
  29. Demetriades, Panicos O & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 2000. "Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital: Evidence from 12 OECD Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 687-712, July.
  30. Ziesemer, Thomas, 1990. "Public Factors and Democracy in Poverty Analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(1), pages 268-280, January.
  31. Ward Romp & Jakob de Haan, 2007. "Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Critical Survey," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(s1), pages 6-52, 04.
  32. Melvin Ayogu, 0. "Infrastructure and Economic Development in Africa: A Review-super- †," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(suppl_1), pages -126.
  33. Futagami, Koichi & Morita, Yuichi & Shibata, Akihisa, 1993. " Dynamic Analysis of an Endogenous Growth Model with Public Capital," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 95(4), pages 607-625, December.
  34. Michael Bleaney & Norman Gemmell & Richard Kneller, 2001. "Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 36-57, February.
  35. Luoto, Jani, 2011. "Aggregate infrastructure capital stock and long-run growth: Evidence from Finnish data," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 181-191, March.
  36. Nigel James Miller & Christopher Tsoukis, 2001. "On the optimality of public capital for long-run economic growth: evidence from panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(9), pages 1117-1129.
  37. Kamps, Christophe, 2005. "Is there a lack of public capital in the European Union?," EIB Papers 3/2005, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  38. David Canning & Peter Pedroni, 2008. "Infrastructure, Long-Run Economic Growth And Causality Tests For Cointegrated Panels," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(5), pages 504-527, 09.
  39. Okui, Ryo, 2009. "The optimal choice of moments in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 1-16, July.
  40. R. Milbourne & G. Otto & G. Voss, 2003. "Public investment and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 527-540.
  41. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
  42. Basu, Parantap, 1987. "An Adjustment Cost Model of Asset Pricing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(3), pages 609-621, October.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rza:wpaper:471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Tanton)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.