A Greek wedding in SADC? - Testing for structural symmetry towards SADC monetary integration
This paper investigates structural symmetry among SADC countries in order to establish, judged by modern OCA theory, which of these countries may possibly make for a good monetary matrimony and which countries may be left out in the cold. SADC remains adamant that it would conclude monetary union by 2018. It can ill afford a repeat of the type of financial and fiscal instability brought about by ex ante structural economic differences and asynchronous business cycles in the EU. This study contributes to the literature on macro-economic convergence in the SADC region. We make use of the Triples test to analyse each country’s business cycles for symmetry and then evaluate SADC countries’ ratio of relative intensity of co-movements in business cycles with co-SADC country and versus that of major trade partners. We find that not all countries in SADC conform to OCA criteria judged by both asymmetrical business cycles and weak co-movements in business cycles.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+2712) 420 2413
Fax: (+2712) 362-5207
Web page: http://www.up.ac.za/economics
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996.
"The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria,"
NBER Working Papers
5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-25, July.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," CEPR Discussion Papers 1473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Böwer, Uwe & Guillemineau, Catherine, 2006. "Determinants of business cycle synchronisation across euro area countries," Working Paper Series 0587, European Central Bank.
- Crowley , Patrick & Lee , Jim, 2005. "Decomposing the co-movement of the business cycle: a time-frequency analysis of growth cycles in the euro area," Research Discussion Papers 12/2005, Bank of Finland.
- Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
- Dowd, Kevin & Greenaway, David, 1993. "Currency Competition, Network Externalities and Switching Costs: Towards an Alternative View of Optimum Currency Areas," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(420), pages 1180-89, September.
- Boone, Laurence & Maurel, Mathilde, 1998. "Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 2018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jacques MÃ©litz, 1996.
"The theory of optimum currency areas, trade adjustment, and trade,"
Open Economies Review,
Springer, vol. 7(2), pages 99-116, April.
- Melitz, Jacques, 1993. "The Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, Trade Adjustment and Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 847, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Barry Eichengreen., 1990.
"One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union,"
Economics Working Papers
90-132, University of California at Berkeley.
- Eichengreen, Barry, 1990. "One Money for Europe? Lessons from the US Currency Union," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt6ks1k831, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521862509 is not listed on IDEAS
- Randal Verbrugge Randal Verbrugge, 1997. "Investigating Cyclical Asymmetries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-10, April.
- Sybille Lehwald, 2013.
"Has the Euro changed business cycle synchronization? Evidence from the core and the periphery,"
Springer, vol. 40(4), pages 655-684, November.
- Sybille Lehwald, 2012. "Has the Euro Changed Business Cycle Synchronization?Evidence from the Core and the Periphery," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 122, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Hugh Rockoff, 1999.
"How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?,"
Departmental Working Papers
199910, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Hugh Rockoff, 2000. "How Long Did It Take the United States to Become an Optimal Currency Area?," NBER Historical Working Papers 0124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George S. Tavlas, 2009.
"The Benefits And Costs Of Monetary Union In Southern Africa: A Critical Survey Of The Literature,"
Journal of Economic Surveys,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 1-43, 02.
- George S. Tavlas, 2008. "The Benefits and Costs of Monetary Union in Southern Africa: A Critical Survey of the Literature," Working Papers 70, Bank of Greece.
- repec:hal:journl:hal-00368586 is not listed on IDEAS
- Bayoumi, Tamim & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1997.
"Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements,"
Journal of African Economies,
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 412-44, October.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Jonathan David Ostry, 1995. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Trade Flows within Sub-Saharan Africa; Implications for Optimum Currency Arrangements," IMF Working Papers 95/142, International Monetary Fund.
- Steven Buigut, 2006. "Monetary Integration Initiatives in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA): Sorting the Overlapping Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 295-315, December.
- Khamfula, Yohane & Huizinga, Harry, 2004. "The Southern African Development Community: suitable for a monetary union?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 699-714, April.
- W.A. Razzak, 2001.
"Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(1), pages 230-243, January.
- Weshah Razzak, 2001. "Triples Asymmetry Test for "Business Cycle Asymmetries: International Evidence"," Computer Codes razzak01, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521711500 is not listed on IDEAS
- Steven K. Buigut & Neven Valev, 2005.
"Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis,"
International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU
paper0504, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
- Steven K. Buigut & Neven T. Valev, 2006. "Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 586-603, November.
- S. Jules-Armand Tapsoba, 2009. "Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 18(2), pages 287-318, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rangan Gupta)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.