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A Greek Wedding In SADC? Testing For Structural Symmetry Towards SADC Monetary Integration

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  • Mulatu F. Zerihun
  • Marthinus C. Breitenbach
  • Francis Kemegue

    () (University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This paper investigates structural symmetry among Southern African Development Community (SADC) in order to evaluate the potential for monetary union among member countries. In particular, we check for compliance with OCA criteria, with specific reference to business cycle synchronization. SADC can ill afford a repeat of the financial and fiscal instability in the EU, who was shown to have experienced ex-ante structural economic differences and asynchronous business cycles prior to monetary union. This study contributes to the literature on macro-economic convergence in the SADC region. We make use of the Triples test to analyse each country’s business cycles for symmetry and then evaluate SADC countries’ ratio of relative intensity of co-movements in business cycles with co-SADC country versus that of major trade partners. We find that not all countries in SADC conform to OCA criteria judged both by asymmetrical business cycles and weak co-movements in business cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Mulatu F. Zerihun & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Francis Kemegue, 2014. "A Greek Wedding In SADC? Testing For Structural Symmetry Towards SADC Monetary Integration," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 16-33.
  • Handle: RePEc:afj:journl:v:16:y:2014:i:2:p:16-33
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mulatu F. Zehirun & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Francis M. Kemegue, 2015. "Assessment of Monetary Union in SADC: Evidence from Cointegration and Panel Unit Root Tests," Working Papers 201502, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Christian K. Tipoy, 2019. "Real Convergence using TAR Panel Unit Root Tests: An Application to The Southern African Development Community," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(1-2), pages 45-61, January-J.
    3. Zerihun, Mulatu F. & Breitenbach, Marthinus C., 2016. "Nonlinear approaches in testing PPP: Evidence from Southern African development community," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 162-167.
    4. Mulatu Fekadu Zerihun & Marthinus C. Breitenbach, 2017. "Panel Data Analysis of the Proposed Monetary Union in the Southern African Development Community," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(4), pages 23-44, October-D.
    5. Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande & Harold Ngalawa, 2017. "The endogeneity of business cycle synchronisation in SADC: A GMM approach," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1358914-135, January.
    6. Mulatu F. Zehirun & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Francis Kemegue, 2014. "Monetary Integration in SADC: Assessment of Policy Coordination and Real Effective Exchange Rate Stability," Working Papers 201473, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Mulatu F. Zerihun & Marthinus C. Breitenbach, 2018. "Is SADC an optimal currency area? Evidence from the generalized purchasing power parity test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 173-188, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Triples test; optimal currency area (OCA); SADC; structural symmetry;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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