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Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis

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  • Steven K. Buigut
  • Neven T. Valev

Abstract

This paper uses VAR techniques to investigate the potential for forming monetary unions in Eastern and Southern Africa. All countries in the sample are members of various regional economic organizations. Some of the organizations have a monetary union as an immediate objective whereas others consider it as a possibility in the more distant future. Our objective is to sort out which countries are suitable candidates for a monetary union based on the synchronicity of demand and supply disturbances. Although economic shocks are not highly correlated across the entire region, we tentatively identify three sub‐regional clusters of countries that may benefit from a currency union. We find some tentative evidence that some, though not all, sub‐regions may benefit from a link to the Euro.

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  • Steven K. Buigut & Neven T. Valev, 2006. "Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(4), pages 586-603, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:10:y:2006:i:4:p:586-603
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2006.00333.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    9. repec:zbw:bofitp:2001_014 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. M. J. Aziakpono & S. Kleimeier & H. Sander, 2012. "Banking market integration in the SADC countries: evidence from interest rate analyses," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(29), pages 3857-3876, October.
    2. Gilles Dufrénot & Kimiko Sugimoto, 2013. "West African Single Currency and Competitiveness," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 763-777, November.
    3. George S. Tavlas, 2009. "The Benefits And Costs Of Monetary Union In Southern Africa: A Critical Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 1-43, February.
    4. Carlos Vieira & Isabel Vieira, 2013. "Monetary Integration In Eastern And Southern Africa: Choosing A Currency Peg For Comesa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(3), pages 356-372, September.
    5. Asongu, Simplice & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2017. "A summary of a survey on proposed African monetary unions," MPRA Paper 79637, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Simplice Asongu & Jacinta Nwachukwu & Vanessa Tchamyou, 2017. "A Literature Survey On Proposed African Monetary Unions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 878-902, July.
    7. Mulatu F. Zerihun & Marthinus C. Breitenbach & Francis Kemegue, 2014. "A Greek Wedding In SADC? Testing For Structural Symmetry Towards SADC Monetary Integration," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 16(2), pages 16-33.
    8. Xavier Debrun & Paul R. Masson & Catherine Pattillo, 2019. "Should African Monetary Unions Be Expanded? An Empirical Investigation of the Scope for Monetary Integration in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 6, pages 195-242, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Stefan Eichler & Alexander Karmann, 2011. "Optimum Currency Areas in Emerging Market Regions: Evidence Based on the Symmetry of Economic Shocks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(5), pages 935-954, November.
    10. Aweng Peter Majok Garang & Hatice Erkekoglu, 2020. "Business Cycles Synchronisation and Symmetries in the Transition to East African Monetary Union," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 495-517, December.
    11. Steven Buigut, 2006. "Monetary Integration Initiatives in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA): Sorting the Overlapping Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 295-315, December.
    12. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu, 2020. "An Index of African Monetary Integration (IAMI)," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/003, African Governance and Development Institute..
    13. Diagne, Youssoupha Sakrya, 2021. "Enjeux du projet de monnaie unique CEDEAO [Implications of the ECOWAS single currency project]," MPRA Paper 113995, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kamal, Mona, 2015. "Egypt Relative to the COMESA’s Member States: Do Fiscal Policy Rules Matter?," MPRA Paper 67101, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gajewski Pawe³, 2018. "Demand and Supply Shock Symmetry across Polish Voievodships," Lodz Economics Working Papers 5/2018, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.

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