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The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study

  • Basher, Syed A.
  • Fachin, Stefano

Migration between the Canadian provinces generally followed a declining trend over the period 1971-2004. In this paper, taking Ontario a case study, we seek to explain these patterns using recent panel cointegration methods that are robust to cross-section dependence. Estimation of heterogenous models suggests that the determinants of migration vary across provinces. Overall, unemployment differential and income in the sending province appear to be the most important ones, with income and federal transfer differentials playing only a minor role.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6685/1/MPRA_paper_6685.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6685.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6685
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  1. Nelson C. Mark & Masao Ogaki & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Pesaran, M.H., 2004. "‘General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0435, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
  4. Faini, Riccardo & Galli, Giampaolo & Gennari, Pietro & Rossi, Fulvio, 1997. "An empirical puzzle: Falling migration and growing unemployment differentials among Italian regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 571-579, April.
  5. Thomas J. Courchene, 1970. "Interprovincial Migration and Economic Adjustment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 550-76, November.
  6. Serge Coulombe, 2006. "Internal Migration, Asymmetric Shocks, and Interprovincial Economic Adjustments in Canada," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(2), pages 199-223, April.
  7. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1971_26n4_0779 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Serge Coulombe & Kathleen M. Day, 1999. "Economic Growth and Regional Income Disparities in Canada and the Northern United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(2), pages 155-178, June.
  9. Shaw, R Paul, 1986. "Fiscal versus Traditional Market Variables in Canadian Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 648-66, June.
  10. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  11. Lars Osberg & Daniel V. Gordon & Zhengxi Lin, 1994. "Interregional Migration and Interindustry Labour Mobility in Canada: A Simultaneous Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 58-80, February.
  12. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
  13. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
  14. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 2000. "Improving the Reliability of Bootstrap Tests," Working Papers 995, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  15. Phillip Swagel & Steven Vincent Dunaway & Martin David Kaufman, 2003. "Regional Convergence and the Role of Federal Transfers in Canada," IMF Working Papers 03/97, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Ayat, L. & Burridge, P., 1996. "Unit Root Tests in the presence of Uncertainty about the Non-Stochastic Trends," Discussion Papers 96-28, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  17. Moon, Hyungsik R., 1999. "A note on fully-modified estimation of seemingly unrelated regressions models with integrated regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 25-31, October.
  18. Joseph DeJuan & Marc Tomljanovich, 2005. "Income convergence across Canadian provinces in the 20th century: Almost but not quite there," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 567-592, 09.
  19. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Convergence and Migration among Provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 324-30, April.
  20. Kathleen M. Day & Stanley L. Winer, 2005. "Policy-induced Internal Migration: An Empirical Investigation of the Canadian Case," CESifo Working Paper Series 1605, CESifo Group Munich.
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