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The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study

Author

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  • Basher, Syed A.
  • Fachin, Stefano

Abstract

Migration between the Canadian provinces generally followed a declining trend over the period 1971-2004. In this paper, taking Ontario a case study, we seek to explain these patterns using recent panel cointegration methods that are robust to cross-section dependence. Estimation of heterogenous models suggests that the determinants of migration vary across provinces. Overall, unemployment differential and income in the sending province appear to be the most important ones, with income and federal transfer differentials playing only a minor role.

Suggested Citation

  • Basher, Syed A. & Fachin, Stefano, 2008. "The long-term decline of internal migration in Canada – Ontario as a case study," MPRA Paper 6685, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6685
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/6685/1/MPRA_paper_6685.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John F. Helliwell, 1996. "Convergence and Migration among Provinces," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(s1), pages 324-330, April.
    2. Nelson C. Mark & Masao Ogaki & Donggyu Sul, 2005. "Dynamic Seemingly Unrelated Cointegrating Regressions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 797-820.
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    4. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2021. "General diagnostic tests for cross-sectional dependence in panels," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 13-50, January.
    5. Elizabeth Wakerly & Byron Scott & James Nason, 2006. "Common trends and common cycles in Canada: who knew so much has been going on?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 39(1), pages 320-347, February.
    6. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    7. Shaw, R Paul, 1986. "Fiscal versus Traditional Market Variables in Canadian Migration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 648-666, June.
    8. Lars Osberg & Daniel V. Gordon & Zhengxi Lin, 1994. "Interregional Migration and Interindustry Labour Mobility in Canada: A Simultaneous Approach," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(1), pages 58-80, February.
    9. Serge Coulombe & Kathleen M. Day, 1999. "Economic Growth and Regional Income Disparities in Canada and the Northern United States," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 25(2), pages 155-178, June.
    10. Mr. Phillip L Swagel & Mr. Steven V Dunaway & Mr. Martin D Kaufman, 2003. "Regional Convergence and the Role of Federal Transfers in Canada," IMF Working Papers 2003/097, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Stefano Fachin, 2007. "Long-run trends in internal migrations in italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 401-428.
    12. Serge Coulombe, 2006. "Internal Migration, Asymmetric Shocks, and Interprovincial Economic Adjustments in Canada," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 29(2), pages 199-223, April.
    13. Faini, Riccardo & Galli, Giampaolo & Gennari, Pietro & Rossi, Fulvio, 1997. "An empirical puzzle: Falling migration and growing unemployment differentials among Italian regions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 571-579, April.
    14. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    15. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1971_26n4_0779 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Joseph DeJuan & Marc Tomljanovich, 2005. "Income convergence across Canadian provinces in the 20th century: Almost but not quite there," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 39(3), pages 567-592, September.
    17. Moon, Hyungsik R., 1999. "A note on fully-modified estimation of seemingly unrelated regressions models with integrated regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 25-31, October.
    18. Ayat, Leila & Burridge, Peter, 2000. "Unit root tests in the presence of uncertainty about the non-stochastic trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 71-96, March.
    19. Thomas J. Courchene, 1970. "Interprovincial Migration and Economic Adjustment," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 3(4), pages 550-576, November.
    20. Kathleen Day & Stanley Winer, 2006. "Policy-induced internal migration: An empirical investigation of the Canadian case," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 13(5), pages 535-564, September.
    21. James G. MacKinnon & Russell Davidson, 2000. "Improving The Reliability Of Bootstrap Tests," Working Paper 995, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    22. Ross Finnie, 2004. "Who moves? A logit model analysis of inter-provincial migration in Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(16), pages 1759-1779.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2021. "Gravity models of interprovincial migration flows in Canada with hierarchical multifactor structure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 365-390, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internal migration; panel cointegration; bootstrap; Canada;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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