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An Intervention Analysis on the Tokyo Grain Exchange Non- Genetically Modified and Conventional Soybean Futures Market

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  • Aruga, Kentaka

Abstract

This paper examines how efficiently the price premium for non-genetically modified (non-GM) soybeans at the Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE) react to an announcement to change the contract unit, suppliers, and expiration date on the conventional soybean futures contract. Intervention analysis is used for this purpose. The results reveal that the price premium for non-GM soybeans increases after the change and this effect remains at least for a month. Hence, prices of the two soybean futures markets did not respond quickly to the announcement and there was an informational inefficiency after the announcement occurred.

Suggested Citation

  • Aruga, Kentaka, 2011. "An Intervention Analysis on the Tokyo Grain Exchange Non- Genetically Modified and Conventional Soybean Futures Market," MPRA Paper 36088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36088
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Parcell, Joseph L., 2001. "An Initial Look At The Tokyo Grain Exchange Non-Gmo Soybean Contract," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 19(1).
    2. McCluskey, Jill J. & Grimsrud, Kristine M. & Ouchi, Hiromi & Wahl, Thomas I., 2003. "Consumer Response to Genetically Modified Food Products in Japan," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 222-231, October.
    3. Bullock, D. S. & Desquilbet, M., 2002. "The economics of non-GMO segregation and identity preservation," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 81-99, February.
    4. Bjursell, Johan & Frino, Alex & Tse, Yiuman & Wang, George H.K., 2010. "Volatility and trading activity following changes in the size of futures contracts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 967-980, December.
    5. Larcker, David F. & Gordon, Lawrence A. & Pinches, George E., 1980. "Testing for Market Efficiency: A Comparison of the Cumulative Average Residual Methodology and Intervention Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(02), pages 267-287, June.
    6. Wallace E. Huffman, 2003. "Consumers' Acceptance of (and Resistance to) Genetically Modified Foods in High-Income Countries: Effects of Labels and Information in an Uncertain Environment," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1112-1118.
    7. Vitaly Guzhva, 2008. "Applying intervention analysis to financial performance data: The case of US airlines and September 11th," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 32(3), pages 243-259, July.
    8. Aruga Kentaka, 2011. "Market Efficiency in the Non-Genetically Modified Soybean Futures Market," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    10. Randal R. Rucker & Walter N. Thurman & Jonathan K. Yoder, 2005. "Estimating the Structure of Market Reaction to News: Information Events and Lumber Futures Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(2), pages 482-500.
    11. Geoffrey Booth, G. & Ciner, Cetin, 1997. "International transmission on information in corn futures markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 175-187, October.
    12. Wachenheim, Cheryl J. & Vanwechel, Tamara, 2004. "The Influence Of Environmental-Impact Information On Consumer Willingness To Pay For Products Labeled As Free Of Genetically Modified Ingredients," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(02), July.
    13. John Doukas & Abdul Rahman, 1986. "Foreign currency futures and monetary policy announcements: An intervention analysis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 343-373, September.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price premium; non-genetically modified soybeans; conventional soybeans; intervention analysis; Tokyo Grain Exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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