IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/29077.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The long-run relationship between savings and investment in oil-exporting developing countries: A case study of the Gulf Arab States

Author

Listed:
  • Basher, Syed Abul
  • Fachin, Stefano

Abstract

The relationship between national saving and investment over the long term is examined for six Gulf Arab oil-exporting developing countries -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. We show that, provided some large outliers are properly accounted for, long-run equilibrium relationships between saving and investment (both total and fixed) exist in these countries. Since these countries have typically large current account surpluses such relationships cannot be explained by standard arguments. Our hypothesis is that the response of investment to saving largely depends on domestic absorptive capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Basher, Syed Abul & Fachin, Stefano, 2011. "The long-run relationship between savings and investment in oil-exporting developing countries: A case study of the Gulf Arab States," MPRA Paper 29077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29077/1/MPRA_paper_29077.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics,in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier.
    2. Jansen, W Jos & Schulze, Gunther G, 1996. "Theory-Based Measurement of the Saving-Investment Correlation with an Application to Norway," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 34(1), pages 116-132, January.
    3. Montiel, Peter J, 1994. "Capital Mobility in Developing Countries: Some Measurement Issues and Empirical Estimates," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(3), pages 311-350, September.
    4. Looney, Robert, 2009. "The Omani and Bahraini Paths to Development: Rare and Contrasting Oil-based Economic Success Stories," WIDER Working Paper Series 038, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Looney, Robert E., 1992. "Real or illusory growth in an oil-based economy: Government expenditures and private sector investment in Saudi Arabia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1367-1375, September.
    6. Murphy, Robert G., 1984. "Capital mobility and the relationship between saving and investment rates in OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 327-342, December.
    7. May Y Khamis & Abdullah Al-Hassan & Nada Oulidi, 2010. "The GCC Banking Sector; Topography and Analysis," IMF Working Papers 10/87, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Mauricio Villafuerte & Rolando Ossowski & Theo Thomas & Paulo A Medas, 2008. "Managing the Oil Revenue Boom; The Role of Fiscal Institutions," IMF Occasional Papers 260, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Nason, James M & Rogers, John H, 2002. "Investment and the Current Account in the Short Run and the Long Run," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 967-986, November.
    10. Iris Bohnet & Benedikt Herrmann & Richard Zeckhauser, 2010. "Trust and the Reference Points for Trustworthiness in Gulf and Western Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(2), pages 811-828.
    11. John F. Wilson & Susan Fennell & Nigel A Chalk & Mohamed A. El-Erian & Alexei P Kireyev, 1997. "Kuwait; From Reconstruction to Accumulation for Future Generations," IMF Occasional Papers 150, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Michael Sturm & François Gurtner & Juan Gonzalez Alegre, 2009. "Fiscal policy challenges in oil-exporting countries – a review of key issues," Occasional Paper Series 104, European Central Bank.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Tamim Bayoumi, 1990. "Saving-Investment Correlations: Immobile Capital, Government Policy, or Endogenous Behavior?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 360-387, June.
    15. Steven A Barnett & Rolando Ossowski, 2002. "Operational Aspects of Fiscal Policy in Oil-Producing Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/177, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Heino Bohn Nielsen, 2004. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of outliers," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 249-271, June.
    17. Auty, Richard M., 2001. "The political state and the management of mineral rents in capital-surplus economies: Botswana and Saudi Arabia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 77-86, June.
    18. Sinha, Tapen & Sinha, Dipendra, 2004. "The mother of all puzzles would not go away," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 259-267, February.
    19. Apergis, Nicholas & Tsoumas, Chris, 2009. "A survey of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle: What has been done and where we stand," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 64-76, June.
    20. Basher, Syed Abul, 2010. "Has the non-oil sector decoupled from oil sector? A case study of Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," MPRA Paper 21059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    22. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Series," Working Papers 9808, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    23. Xavier Sala-i-Martín & Elsa V. Artadi, 2003. "Economic growth and investment in the Arab world," Economics Working Papers 683, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Joëts, Marc & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 63-78.
    2. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2017. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach," MPRA Paper 81638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Dramane & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-201.
    4. Hassan B. Ghassan & Hassan R. Alhajhoj, 2016. "Long-Run Dynamic Relationship between FDI and Domestic Investment in GCC Countries," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 59(2), pages 16-43.
    5. Christian Dreger & Teymur Rahmani, 2016. "The impact of oil revenues on the Iranian economy and the Gulf states," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 40(1), pages 36-49, March.
    6. Ghassan, Hassan B. & Alhajhoj, Hassan R., 2012. "Long Run Relationship between IFDI and Domestic Investment in GCC Countries," MPRA Paper 62544, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2013.
    7. Covi, Giovanni, 2014. "The First Oil Shock, Stylized Facts, Reflections and The Easterly Puzzle in a Forty-Year Retrospective," MPRA Paper 58130, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Saving-investment correlation; oil-exporting developing countries; GCC countries; absorptive capacity; outlier detection; integrated process.;

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29077. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.