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Measuring Bank Contagion in Europe Using Binary Spatial Regression Models

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  • Raffaella Calabrese

    () (Essex Business School, University of Essex)

  • Johan A. Elkink

    () (University College Dublin)

  • Paolo Giudici

    () (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)

Abstract

The recent European sovereign debt crisis clearly illustrates the importance of measuring the contagion effects of bank failures. Indeed, to better understand and monitor contagion risk, the European Central Bank is assuming the supervision of the largest banks in each of the member states. We propose a measure of contagion risk based on the spatial autocorrelation parameter of a binary spatial autoregressive model. Using different specifications of the interbank connectivity matrix and of the determinants of bank failures, we estimate the contagion parameter for banks within the Eurozone, between 1996 and 2012. We provide evidence of high levels of systemic risk due to contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Raffaella Calabrese & Johan A. Elkink & Paolo Giudici, 2014. "Measuring Bank Contagion in Europe Using Binary Spatial Regression Models," DEM Working Papers Series 096, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0096
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2019. "The Time-Spatial Dimension of Eurozone Banking Systemic Risk," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, July.
    2. Islam, Raisul & Volkov, Vladimir, 2020. "Contagion or interdependence? Comparing signed and unsigned spillovers," Working Papers 2020-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    3. Manthoulis, Georgios & Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Galariotis, Emilios, 2020. "An ordinal classification framework for bank failure prediction: Methodology and empirical evidence for US banks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(2), pages 786-801.

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    Keywords

    Contagion risk; spatial autoregressive models; European banks; binary data.;
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