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The impact of US fresh milk production standards on dairy trade

  • P. Dorian Owen

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Niven Winchester

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago and Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

We analyse the impact of proposed changes in US legislation to allow greater use of dairy concentrate products in the production of fresh milk products. This change could potentially have a large impact on dairy trade as US tariffs on concentrated dairy products are low relative to average dairy tariffs. Our investigation builds a global model that identifies six dairy commodities and includes a detailed specification of the production of fresh milk products. We find that proposed changes in US legislation may lead to large proportional changes in US imports of concentrated milk products from some sources. However, as proposed changes in US regulations will only facilitate a small increase in the use of concentrated milk products in the production of fresh milk products, there are only small changes in global dairy production. We supplement results from our simulation model with a gravity analysis. Our results indicate that trade in concentrated milk products is positively related to aggregate dairy tariffs and negatively related to concentrated milk tariffs. This suggests that large tariffs on some dairy commodities influence the overall pattern of dairy trade.

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File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1117.pdf
File Function: First version, 2011
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Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1117.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2011
Date of revision: Dec 2011
Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1117
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  1. Schaefer Kurt C & Anderson Michael A & Ferrantino Michael J, 2008. "Monte Carlo Appraisals of Gravity Model Specifications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-26, February.
  2. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Nahuis, Richard, 2004. "One size fits all?: Accession to the internal market; an industry-level assessment of EU enlargement," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 571-586, July.
  4. Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
  5. Zohra Bouamra-Mechemache & Jean-Paul Chavas & Thomas L. Cox & Vincent RĂ©quillart, 2002. "Partial Market Liberalization and the Efficiency of Policy Reform: The Case of the European Dairy Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1003-1020.
  6. Boriss Siliverstovs & Dieter Schumacher, 2007. "Estimating Gravity Equations: To Log or Not to Log?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 739, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  7. G. Philippidis & A.I. Sanjuán, 2007. "An Examination of Morocco's Trade Options with the EU," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 16(2), pages 259-300, March.
  8. Joakim Westerlund & Fredrik Wilhelmsson, 2009. "Estimating the gravity model without gravity using panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 641-649.
  9. Philippidis, G. & Carrington, A., 2005. "European Enlargement and Single Market Accession: A Mistreated Issue," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 20, pages 543-566.
  10. Charteris, Angus & Winchester, Niven, 2010. "Dairy disaggregation and joint production in an economy-wide model," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 54(4), December.
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