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Prospects for Trade in Intermediates and Trade in Services: What Does the Gravity Model of Bilateral Trade Tell Us?

  • Haruka Yane

    (Graduate student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University)

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    This study uses product-level international bilateral trade panel data for the period 1995 to 2009, covering 40 countries from the recently released World Input-Output Database (WIOD). Constructing this dataset into a standard gravity model, this paper aims to compare the magnitude of coefficients across two pairs of equations with different dependent variables: trade in intermediates in comparison with trade in final products, and total trade in goods as opposed to total trade in services. So as to investigate these differences further, this study also analyzes the models by sector. This paper applies the sample selection model in order to account for the zero trade flows. Estimation results confirm that trading partners in East Asia engage much more in both trade in intermediate inputs and assembled final products, especially the former, compared to EU and NAFTA blocs. Trade in services presents remarkable resilience to the current financial crisis. Intermediate services trade, in particular, is affected less by trade costs and market size. By liberalizing trade and increasing economic freedom, there will be a highly significant, positive effect on nearly all kinds of trade flows.

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    Paper provided by Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University in its series OSIPP Discussion Paper with number 13E002.

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    Length: 31 pages
    Date of creation: Feb 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:13e002
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    1. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Introduction to "Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11"," NBER Chapters, in: Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Djankov, Simeon & La Porta, Rafael & Shleifer, Andrei & Lopez de Silanes, Florencio, 2001. "The regulation of entry," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2661, The World Bank.
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    4. Joao Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2005. "The log of gravity," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3744, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
    7. Jon Haveman & David Hummels, 2004. "Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 199-218, February.
    8. Fukao, Kyoji & Ito, Keiko, 2000. "Foreign Direct Investment and Service Trade: The Case of Japan," Discussion Paper Series a394, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
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    10. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April.
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    14. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2003. "Trade in Services in the Asia Pacific Region, NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE), Volume 11," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_03-1, December.
    15. Marcel Timmer & Abdul A. Erumban & Reitze Gouma & Bart Los & Umed Temurshoev & Gaaitzen J. de Vries & I–aki Arto & Valeria Andreoni AurŽlien Genty & Frederik Neuwahl & JosŽ M. Rueda?Cantuche & Joseph , 2012. "The World Input-Output Database (WIOD): Contents, Sources and Methods," IIDE Discussion Papers 20120401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    16. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    17. Robert C. Johnson & Guillermo Noguera, 2012. "Fragmentation and Trade in Value Added over Four Decades," NBER Working Papers 18186, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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