IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30519.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Tale of Tier 3 Cities

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth S. Rogoff
  • Yuanchen Yang

Abstract

This paper provides new estimates of the housing stock, construction rates and price developments by city tier in China in order to understand where excess supply might be concentrated, and the implications of any significant contraction. We also update estimates of the size of China’s rapidly evolving real estate sector through 2021, allowing one to look at the initial impact of COVID-19, as well as extending the analysis to incorporate urban-expansion related infrastructure construction. We argue that China overall faces imbalances between supply and demand for housing stock, but the problem is significantly deeper in the generally smaller and lower income tier 3 cities, which nevertheless account for more than 60% of both China’s GDP and its housing stock.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth S. Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2022. "A Tale of Tier 3 Cities," NBER Working Papers 30519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30519
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30519.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanming Fang & Quanlin Gu & Wei Xiong & Li-An Zhou, 2016. "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 105-166.
    2. Kirill Borusyak & Peter Hull & Xavier Jaravel, 2022. "Quasi-Experimental Shift-Share Research Designs," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 181-213.
    3. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    4. Bhatt, Ayushman & Kato, Hironori, 2021. "High-speed rails and knowledge productivity: A global perspective," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 174-186.
    5. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    6. Kaiji Chen & Yi Wen, 2017. "The Great Housing Boom of China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 73-114, April.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    8. Sun, Xiangdong & Yuan, Ouyang & Xu, Zhao & Yin, Yanhui & Liu, Qian & Wu, Ling, 2021. "Did Zipf's Law hold for Chinese cities and why? Evidence from multi-source data," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    9. Gao, Lu, 2010. "Achievements and Challenges: 30 Years of Housing Reforms in the People’s Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 198, Asian Development Bank.
    10. Edward Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko, 2018. "The Economic Implications of Housing Supply," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-30, Winter.
    11. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "International Trade with Endogenous Technological Change," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 2, pages 33-70, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2021. "Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    13. Mikael Lindahl & Alan B. Krueger, 2001. "Education for Growth: Why and for Whom?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1101-1136, December.
    14. Asquith, Brian & Goswami, Sanjana & Neumark, David & Rodriguez-Lopez, Antonio, 2019. "U.S. job flows and the China shock," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 123-137.
    15. Mo, Jiawei, 2018. "Land financing and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese counties," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 218-239.
    16. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2013. "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2121-2168, October.
    17. Alberto Martín & Enrique Moral-Benito & Tom Schmitz, 2021. "The Financial Transmission of Housing Booms: Evidence from Spain," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(3), pages 1013-1053, March.
    18. Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham & Isaac Sorkin & Henry Swift, 2020. "Bartik Instruments: What, When, Why, and How," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(8), pages 2586-2624, August.
    19. Yongming Huang & Jamal Khan & Eric Girardin & Umair Shad, 2021. "The Role of the Real Estate Sector in the Structural Dynamics of the Chinese Economy: An Input–Output Analysis," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 61-86, January.
    20. Edward E. Leamer, 2015. "Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 43-50, March.
    21. Ting Chen & Laura Xiaolei Liu & Wei Xiong & Li-An Zhou, 2017. "Real Estate Boom and Misallocation of Capital in China," Working Papers 2017-1, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    22. Indraneel Chakraborty & Itay Goldstein & Andrew MacKinlay, 2018. "Housing Price Booms and Crowding-Out Effects in Bank Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2806-2853.
    23. Arshad, Sidra & Hu, Shougeng & Ashraf, Badar Nadeem, 2018. "Zipf’s law and city size distribution: A survey of the literature and future research agenda," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 75-92.
    24. Robert J. Barro, 2001. "Human Capital and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 12-17, May.
    25. Zhenyu Gao & Michael Sockin & Wei Xiong & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Economic Consequences of Housing Speculation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(11), pages 5248-5287.
    26. Miao, Jianjun & Wang, Pengfei & Zhou, Jing, 2015. "Asset bubbles, collateral, and policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(S), pages 57-70.
    27. Robert E. Lucas Jr., 2015. "Human Capital and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 85-88, May.
    28. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2014. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1630-1666, June.
    29. Cornes,Richard & Sandler,Todd, 1996. "The Theory of Externalities, Public Goods, and Club Goods," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521477185, June.
    30. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    31. Hu, Yingyao & Yao, Jiaxiong, 2022. "Illuminating economic growth," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 359-378.
    32. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2021. "Reprint: Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    33. Yinglu Deng & Li Liao & Jiaheng Yu & Yu Zhang, 2022. "Capital Spillover, House Prices, and Consumer Spending: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from House Purchase Restrictions," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(6), pages 3060-3099.
    34. Xavier Gabaix, 1999. "Zipf's Law for Cities: An Explanation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(3), pages 739-767.
    35. Kenneth Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2021. "Has China's Housing Production Peaked?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 1-31, January.
    36. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
    37. Yuanchen Yang & Yangyang Liu, 2020. "Credit Expansion and Misallocation," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 10(4), pages 1-5.
    38. Luis R. Martínez, 2022. "How Much Should We Trust the Dictator’s GDP Growth Estimates?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(10), pages 2731-2769.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Chartbook #194 Can Beijing halt China’s housing avalanche? The most important economic-policy question for 2023?
      by Adam Tooze in Adam Tooze on 2023-02-05 21:37:56

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hefan Zheng & Rongjie Zhang & Xinru Yin & Jing Wu, 2025. "Unused housing in urban China and its carbon emission impact," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shenzhe Jiang & Jianjun Miao & Yuzhe Zhang, 2022. "China'S Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, And Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1189-1237, August.
    2. Nong, Huifu, 2024. "Analyzing the Role of the Real Estate Sector in the Sectoral Network of the Chinese Economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 567-580.
    3. Shenzhe Jiang & Jianjun Miao & Yuzhe Zhang, 2019. "China’s Housing Bubble, Infrastructure Investment, and Economic Growth," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2020-005, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.
    5. Bluhm, Richard & Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley C. & Strange, Austin M. & Tierney, Michael J., 2025. "Connective financing: Chinese infrastructure projects and the diffusion of economic activity in developing countries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Jia Pengfei & Lim King Yoong, 2021. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 151-183, January.
    7. Miguel Almunia & Pol Antràs & David Lopez-Rodriguez & Eduardo Morales, 2021. "Venting Out: Exports during a Domestic Slump," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(11), pages 3611-3662, November.
    8. Chor, Davin & Li, Bingjing, 2024. "Illuminating the effects of the US-China tariff war on China’s economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Daniel A. Broxterman & William D. Larson, 2020. "An empirical examination of shift‐share instruments," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 677-711, September.
    10. Endoh, Masahiro, 2023. "The China shock and job reallocation in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Korn, Tobias, 2023. "The Persistent Consequences of Civil Conflict: Evidence from a New Measure for Subnational Conflict Exposure," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-711, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    12. Flannery, Mark J. & Lin, Leming & Wang, Luxi, 2022. "Housing booms and bank growth," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    13. Shi, Yining, 2022. "Financial liberalization and house prices: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Ma, Chao & Zhang, Shuoxun, 2024. "Can housing booms elevate financing costs of financial institutions?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    15. Erling Barth & Henning Finseraas & Anders Kjelsrud & Kalle Moene, 2023. "Hit by the Silk Road: how wage coordination in Europe mitigates the China shock," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 32-72, January.
    16. Bomprezzi, Pietro & Marchesi, Silvia, 2023. "A firm level approach on the effects of IMF programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    17. Eugen Dimant & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2024. "Paying Them to Hate US: The Effect of US Military Aid on Anti-American Terrorism, 1968–2018," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(663), pages 2772-2802.
    18. He, Xiaoyu & Mei, Yixin, 2024. "Can arms breed peace? The consequence of arms imports from the US on civil wars," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 207-229.
    19. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Yuanchen Yang, 2020. "Peak China Housing," NBER Working Papers 27697, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F39 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Other
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30519. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.