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ProPelled: The Effects of Grants on Graduation, Earnings, and Welfare

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  • Jeffrey T. Denning
  • Benjamin M. Marx
  • Lesley J. Turner

Abstract

We estimate effects of the largest U.S. federal grant for college students using administrative data from Texas four-year public colleges and a discontinuity in grant generosity. Eligibility for additional grant aid significantly increases degree receipt and earnings beginning four years after entry. Estimated increases in income tax payments fully recoup government expenditures within ten years. A theoretical model shows that welfare effects of changes in college prices depend on (1) externalities from recipients’ behavioral responses and (2) facilitation of intertemporal consumption smoothing. Calibration suggests that increasing grant aid for low-income college students would enhance welfare in many U.S. settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey T. Denning & Benjamin M. Marx & Lesley J. Turner, 2017. "ProPelled: The Effects of Grants on Graduation, Earnings, and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 23860, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23860
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid

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