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Reevaluating Agricultural Productivity Gaps with Longitudinal Microdata

Listed author(s):
  • Joan Hamory Hicks
  • Marieke Kleemans
  • Nicholas Y. Li
  • Edward Miguel

Recent research has pointed to large gaps in labor productivity between the agricultural and nonagricultural sectors in low-income countries, as well as between workers in rural and urban areas. Most estimates are based on national accounts or repeated cross-sections of micro-survey data, and as a result typically struggle to account for individual selection between sectors. This paper uses long-run individual-level panel data from two low-income countries (Indonesia and Kenya). Accounting for individual fixed effects leads to much smaller estimated productivity gains from moving into the nonagricultural sector (or urban areas), reducing estimated gaps by over 80%. Per capita consumption gaps are also small once individual fixed effects are included. Estimated productivity gaps do not emerge up to five years after a move between sectors. We evaluate whether these findings imply a re-assessment of the conventional wisdom regarding sectoral gaps, discuss how to reconcile them with existing cross-sectional estimates, and consider implications for the desirability of sectoral reallocation of labor.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 23253.

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Date of creation: Mar 2017
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23253
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