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Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment

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Listed:
  • Sebastian Galiani
  • Nadya Hajj
  • Patrick J. McEwan
  • Pablo Ibarraran
  • Nandita Krishnaswamy

Abstract

In a Honduran field experiment, sequences of cash transfers to poor households varied in amount of the largest (“peak”) and last (“end”) transfers. Larger peak-end transfers increased voter turnout and the incumbent party’s vote share in the 2013 presidential election, independently of cumulative transfers. A plausible explanation is that voters succumbed to a common cognitive bias by applying peak-end heuristics. Another is that voters deliberately used peak-end transfers to update beliefs about the incumbent party. In either case, the results provide experimental evidence on the classic non-experimental finding that voters are especially sensitive to recent economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Galiani & Nadya Hajj & Patrick J. McEwan & Pablo Ibarraran & Nandita Krishnaswamy, 2016. "Voter Response to Peak and End Transfers: Evidence from a Conditional Cash Transfer Experiment," NBER Working Papers 22588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22588
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Electoral reciprocity in programmatic redistribution: Experimental Evidence
      by maximorossi in NEP-LTV blog on 2016-09-28 23:34:33

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    3. Ankush Goyal & Rajender Kumar, 2022. "Does Social Welfare Programmes Influence Households Trust in Local Administration and Their Political Participation? Evidence from the MGNREG Scheme in India," Indian Journal of Human Development, , vol. 16(3), pages 602-617, December.
    4. Duchoslav, Jan & Kenamu, Edwin & Thunde, Jack, 2023. "Targeting hunger or votes? The political economy of humanitarian transfers in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Loewenthal, Amit & Miaari, Sami H. & Hoeffler, Anke, 2021. "Aid and Radicalization: The Case of Hamas in the West Bank and Gaza," IZA Discussion Papers 14265, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Felix Kersting, 2022. "Welfare Reform and Repression in an Autocracy: Bismarck and the Socialists," Working Papers 0227, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    7. Alexander James & Nathaly M. Rivera & Brock Smith, 2022. "Cash Transfer and Voter Turnout," Working Papers wp536, University of Chile, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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