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Electoral reciprocity in programmatic redistribution: Experimental Evidence

Listed author(s):
  • Sebastian Galiani
  • Nadya Hajj
  • Pablo Ibarraran
  • Nandita Krishnaswamy
  • Patrick J. McEwan

We analyzed two conditional cash transfers experiments that preceded Honduran presidential elections in 2001 and 2013. In the first, smaller transfers had no effects on voter turnout or incumbent vote share. In the second, larger transfers increased turnout and incumbent share in similar magnitudes, consistent with the mobilization of the incumbent party base rather than vote switching. Moreover, we found that turnout and incumbent share increased when cumulative payments were similar, but larger payments were made closer to the elections. As in prior lab experiments, individuals seem to overweight “peak” and “end” payments in their retrospective estimation of net benefits. We further argue that a model of intrinsically-reciprocal voters is most consistent with the findings.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 22588.

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Date of creation: Sep 2016
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22588
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  1. Galiani, Sebastian & McEwan, Patrick J., 2013. "The heterogeneous impact of conditional cash transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 85-96.
  2. Daniel Kahneman & Peter P. Wakker & Rakesh Sarin, 1997. "Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced Utility," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(2), pages 375-406.
  3. Frederico Finan & Laura Schechter, 2012. "Vote‐Buying and Reciprocity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 863-881, March.
  4. Nicola Persico & Alessandro Lizzeri, 2001. "The Provision of Public Goods under Alternative Electoral Incentives," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 225-239, March.
  5. Fiorella Benedetti & Pablo Ibarrarán & Patrick J. McEwan, 2016. "Do Education and Health Conditions Matter in a Large Cash Transfer? Evidence from a Honduran Experiment," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 759-793.
  6. Marco Manacorda & Edward Miguel & Andrea Vigorito, 2011. "Government Transfers and Political Support," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 1-28, July.
  7. Ariel Fiszbein & Norbert Schady & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Margaret Grosh & Niall Keleher & Pedro Olinto & Emmanuel Skoufias, 2009. "Conditional Cash Transfers : Reducing Present and Future Poverty," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2597, April.
  8. Charity Moore, 2008. "Assessing Honduras? CCT Programme PRAF, Programa de Asignación Familiar: Expected and Unexpected Realities," Country Study 15, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
  9. Kosuke Imai & Gary King & Carlos Velasco Rivera, 2016. "Do Nonpartisan Programmatic Policies Have Partisan Electoral Effects? Evidence from Two Large Scale Randomized Experiments," Working Paper 366526, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  10. repec:cup:apsrev:v:94:y:2000:i:02:p:289-304_22 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Oskar Nupia, 2011. "Anti-Poverty Programs and Presidential Election Outcomes: Familias en Acción in Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 008743, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  12. repec:cup:apsrev:v:99:y:2005:i:03:p:315-325_05 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Sarah Baird & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Berk Özler & Michael Woolcock, 2014. "Conditional, unconditional and everything in between: a systematic review of the effects of cash transfer programmes on schooling outcomes," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1-43, January.
  14. Imbens,Guido W. & Rubin,Donald B., 2015. "Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521885881, December.
  15. Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2005. "PROGRESA and its impacts on the welfare of rural households in Mexico:," Research reports 139, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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