IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mnh/wpaper/40515.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Quantifizierung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte ausgewählter Reformvorschläge der Studie "Reforms, Investment and Growth: An Agenda for France, Germany and Europe"

Author

Listed:
  • Krebs, Tom
  • Scheffel, Martin

Abstract

Der demografische Wandel und die damit verbundene Alterung der Gesellschaft stellt das gesamte Wirtschaftssystem vor Herausforderungen, die eine Anpassung der wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen (Strukturreformen) notwendig machen. Vor diesem Hintergrund hat die Studie von Enderlein und Pisani-Ferry (2014) eine Reihe von konkreten Reformvorschlägen für Deutschland formuliert. Ziel der vorliegenden Studie ist es, eine Auswahl der vorgeschlagenen Maßnahmen auf Basis eines mikrofundierten gesamtwirtschaftlichen Modells mit heterogenen Haushalten zu evaluieren. Weiterhin soll diese Studie der Politik helfen, solche Reformen oder Reformpakete zu identifizieren, die Beschäftigung und Löhne in Deutschland steigern (“Mehr und bessere Arbeit”) und gleichzeitig die öffentlichen Haushalte langfristig nicht belasten (“Fiskalische Effizienz”).1 Die in der vorliegenden Studie zu untersuchenden Reformen sind: • Öffentliches Investitionsprogramm zum Ausbau der Ganztagsbetreuung für Kinder; • Verbesserung der steuerlichen Behandlung von Kinderbetreuungskosten; • Reform der Sozialversicherungsbeiträge im Niedriglohnbereich; • Steuerung der Zuwanderung nach Qualifikation durch ein Punktesystem; • Deregulierung im Bereich der unternehmensbezogenen Dienstleister; • Verbesserung der Finanzierungsmöglichkeiten kleinerer und mittlerer Unternehmen (KMU). Gegenstand dieser Studie ist nicht nur die Evaluation einzelner Reformvorschläge, sondern auch der Vergleich der Wirksamkeit und Effizienz verschiedener Reformen. Um die Vergleichbarkeit zu garantieren, wird die Analyse in einem einheitlichen Modellrahmen durchgeführt. Dies erfordert die Entwicklung eines neuartigen gesamtwirtschaftlichen Modells, das verschiedene Elemente aus der Makroökonomik und der Arbeitsmarktökonomik in kohärenter Weise integriert. Eine detaillierte Beschreibung des hier verwendeten Modellrahmens erfolgt in Kapitel 4 und im Anhang.

Suggested Citation

  • Krebs, Tom & Scheffel, Martin, 2016. "Quantifizierung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte ausgewählter Reformvorschläge der Studie "Reforms, Investment and Growth: An Agenda for France, Germany and Europe"," Working Papers 16-04, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnh:wpaper:40515
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/40515/1/Krebs%20und%20Scheffel%2016-04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl Brenke, 2012. "Geringe Stundenlöhne, lange Arbeitszeiten," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 79(21), pages 3-12.
    2. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1159-1198, November.
    3. Tom Krebs & Moritz Kuhn & Mark L. J. Wright, 2015. "Human Capital Risk, Contract Enforcement, and the Macroeconomy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3223-3272, November.
    4. Meyer, Bruce D, 1990. "Unemployment Insurance and Unemployment Spells," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(4), pages 757-782, July.
    5. Krueger, Alan B. & Mueller, Andreas, 2010. "Job search and unemployment insurance: New evidence from time use data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(3-4), pages 298-307, April.
    6. John T. Addison & Mário Centeno & Pedro Portugal, 2010. "Unemployment Benefits and Reservation Wages: Key Elasticities from a Stripped-Down Job Search Approach," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 77(305), pages 46-59, January.
    7. Francisco J. Buera & Yongseok Shin, 2013. "Financial Frictions and the Persistence of History: A Quantitative Exploration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 221-272.
    8. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    9. Piero Gottardi & Atsushi Kajii & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2015. "Optimal Taxation and Debt with Uninsurable Risks to Human Capital Accumulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(11), pages 3443-3470, November.
    10. Wolf, Elke, 2002. "Lower wage rates for fewer hours? A simultaneous wage-hours model for Germany," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 643-663, November.
    11. Kai-Uwe Müller & Viktor Steiner, 2008. "Imposed Benefit Sanctions and the Unemployment-to-Employment Transition: The German Experience," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 792, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Rasmus Lentz, 2009. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance in an Estimated Job Search Model with Savings," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 37-57, January.
    13. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
    14. Mueller, Andreas, 2010. "On-the-job search and wage dispersion: New evidence from time use data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 124-127, November.
    15. Alan Manning & Barbara Petrongolo, 2008. "The Part-Time Pay Penalty for Women in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(526), pages 28-51, February.
    16. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    17. Krause, Michael U. & Uhlig, Harald, 2012. "Transitions in the German labor market: Structure and crisis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 64-79.
    18. Erik Canton & Daria Ciriaci & Irune Solera, 2014. "The Economic Impact of Professional Services Liberalisation," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 533, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    19. Hunt, Jennifer, 1995. "The Effect of Unemployment Compensation on Unemployment Duration in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(1), pages 88-120, January.
    20. Helmut Rainer & Stefan Bauernschuster & Wolfgang Auer & Natalia Danzer & Mine Hancioglu & Bastian Hartmann & Timo Hener & Christian Holzner & Notburga Ott & Janina Reinkowski & Martin Werding, 2013. "Kinderbetreuung," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 59.
      • Rainer, Helmut & Bauernschuster, Stefan & Auer, Wolfgang & Danzer, Natalia & Hancioglu, Mine & Hartmann, Bastian & Hener, Timo & Holzner, Christian & Ott, Notburga & Reinkowski, Janina & Werding, Mart, . "Kinderbetreuung," Monographs in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics, number 20678, November.
    21. Pierre Cahuc & André Zylberberg, 2004. "Labor Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026203316x.
    22. Alexis Akira Toda, 2015. "Asset Prices and Efficiency in a Krebs Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 957-978, October.
    23. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    24. Barry T. Hirsch, 2005. "Why Do Part-Time Workers Earn Less? The Role of Worker and Job Skills," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 58(4), pages 525-551, July.
    25. Hopenhayn, Hugo A & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 1997. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 412-438, April.
    26. Krueger, Alan B. & Meyer, Bruce D., 2002. "Labor supply effects of social insurance," Handbook of Public Economics,in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 33, pages 2327-2392 Elsevier.
    27. Müller, Kai-Uwe & Steiner, Viktor, 2008. "Imposed Benefit Sanctions and the Unemployment-to-Employment Transition: The German Experience," IZA Discussion Papers 3483, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    28. Wolf, Elke, 2010. "Lohndifferenziale zwischen Vollzeit- und Teilzeitbeschäftigten in Ost- und Westdeutschland," WSI Working Papers 174, The Institute of Economic and Social Research (WSI), Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
    29. Christina Gathmann & Nicolas Keller & Ole Monscheuer & Thomas Straubhaar & Holger Schäfer & Klaus Zimmermann & Herbert Brücker, 2014. "Zuwanderung nach Deutschland — Problem und Chance für den Arbeitsmarkt," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;German National Library of Economics, vol. 94(3), pages 159-179, March.
    30. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Human Capital Risk and Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 709-744.
    31. Moffitt, Robert, 1985. "Unemployment insurance and the distribution of unemployment spells," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 85-101, April.
    32. Oliver Arentz & Clemens Recker & Leonhard Münstermann & Steffen J. Roth, 2015. "Der Dienstleistungssektor in Deutschland: Überblick und Deregulierungspotenziale," Otto-Wolff-Institut Discussion Paper Series 01/2015, Otto-Wolff-Institut für Wirtschaftsordnung, Köln, Deutschland.
    33. Tom Krebs, 2003. "Growth and Welfare Effects of Business Cycles in Economies with Idiosyncratic Human Capital Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 846-868, October.
    34. Bruce D. Meyer & Wallace K. C. Mok, 2007. "Quasi-Experimental Evidence on the Effects of Unemployment Insurance from New York State," NBER Working Papers 12865, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Moffitt, Robert, 1984. "The Estimation of a Joint Wage-Hours Labor Supply Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2(4), pages 550-566, October.
    36. Hinte, Holger & Rinne, Ulf & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2011. "Ein Punktesystem zur bedarfsorientierten Steuerung der Zuwanderung nach Deutschland," IZA Research Reports 35, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    37. Eichhorst, Werner & Marx, Paul & Thode, Eric, 2010. "Atypische Beschäftigung und Niedriglohnarbeit," IZA Research Reports 25, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    38. Raj Chetty, 2008. "Moral Hazard vs. Liquidity and Optimal Unemployment Insurance," NBER Working Papers 13967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Karl Brenke & Nina Neubecker, 2013. "Struktur der Zuwanderungen verändert sich deutlich," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(49), pages 3-21.
    40. John F. Ermisch & Robert E. Wright, 1993. "Wage Offers and Full-Time and Part-Time Employment by British Women," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 28(1), pages 111-133.
    41. Ethel B. Jones & James E. Long, 1979. "Part-Week Work and Human Capital Investment by Married Women," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 14(4), pages 579-594.
    42. Tom Krebs & Martin Scheffel, 2013. "Macroeconomic Evaluation of Labor Market Reform in Germany," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 664-701, December.
    43. Hofmann Barbara, 2012. "Short- and Long-term Ex-Post Effects of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions: Evidence from West Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(1), pages 31-60, February.
    44. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mnh:wpaper:40515. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Katharina Rautenberg). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fvmande.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.