IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

China's Family Planning Policies and Their Labor Market Consequences

Listed author(s):
  • Wang, Fei

    ()

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Zhao, Liqiu

    ()

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Zhao, Zhong

    ()

    (Renmin University of China)

China initiated its family planning policy in 1962 and one-child policy in 1980 and allows all couples to have two children as of 1st January, 2016. This paper systematically examines the labor market consequences of China's family planning policies. First, we briefly review the major historical evolution of China's family planning policies. Second, we investigate the effects of these policies on the labor market, focusing on the size and quality of the working-age population and its age and gender composition and paying special attention to regional as well as rural-urban differences in the demographic structure resulting from the interaction of the family planning policies and internal migration. Last, we discuss undergoing and prospective policy changes and potential consequences. Though urban areas and coastal provinces have implemented stricter family planning policies, our analysis shows that because of internal migration, the aging problem is more severe in rural areas and in inland provinces. Our simulation results further indicate that the new two-child policy may be too late and too little to alleviate the aging problem in China.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp9746.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 9746.

as
in new window

Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2016
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9746
Contact details of provider: Postal:
IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany

Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org

Order Information: Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany
Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Yong Cai, 2010. "China's Below-Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 419-440.
  2. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Junsen Zhang, 2009. "Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China's "One-Child" Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(3), pages 1149-1174.
  3. Becker, Gary S & Lewis, H Gregg, 1973. "On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(2), pages 279-288, Part II, .
  4. Heckman, James J., 2005. "China's human capital investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 50-70.
  5. Zhao, Yaohui, 1999. "Labor Migration and Earnings Differences: The Case of Rural China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 47(4), pages 767-782, July.
  6. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2008. "The quantity-Quality trade-Off of children In a developing country: Identification using chinese twins," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 45(1), pages 223-243, February.
  7. Liu, Zhiqiang, 2005. "Institution and inequality: the hukou system in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-157, March.
  8. Haoming Liu, 2014. "The quality–quantity trade-off: evidence from the relaxation of China’s one-child policy," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 565-602, April.
  9. Josh Angrist, 2002. "How Do Sex Ratios Affect Marriage and Labor Markets? Evidence from America's Second Generation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(3), pages 997-1038.
  10. Wei Huang & Xiaoyan Lei & Yaohui Zhao, 2016. "One-Child Policy and the Rise of Man-Made Twins," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 467-476, July.
  11. Schultz, T Paul & Zeng, Yi, 1995. "Fertility of Rural China: Effects of Local Family Planning and Health Programs," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 8(4), pages 329-350, November.
  12. M. Merli & Herbert Smith, 2002. "Has the Chinese family planning policy been successful in changing fertility preferences?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(3), pages 557-572, August.
  13. Daniel Goodkind, 2011. "Child Underreporting, Fertility, and Sex Ratio Imbalance in China," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 291-316, February.
  14. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Yi Zhu, 2005. "The Effect of the One-Child Policy on Fertility in China: Identification Based on the Differences-in-Differences," Discussion Papers 00019, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  15. Dennis Tao Yang & Dandan Chen, 2004. "Transformations in China's population policies and demographic structure," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 269-290, October.
  16. Zhang, Junsen, 1990. "Socioeconomic Determinants of Fertility in China: A Microeconometric Analysis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 3(2), pages 105-123, August.
  17. Zhang, J., 1990. "Socioeconomic Determinants Of Fertility In China: A Microeconomic Analysis," Papers 212, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
  18. Wei Huang, 2015. "One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss," Working Papers id:7801, eSocialSciences.
  19. William Lavely & Ronald Freedman, 1990. "The Origins of the Chinese Fertility Decline," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 27(3), pages 357-367, August.
  20. Hongbin Li & Lei Li & Binzhen Wu & Yanyan Xiong, 2012. "The End of Cheap Chinese Labor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 57-74, Fall.
  21. Avraham Ebenstein, 2010. "The "Missing Girls" of China and the Unintended Consequences of the One Child Policy," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(1).
  22. Xiaobo He & Rong Zhu, 2016. "Fertility and Female Labour Force Participation: Causal Evidence from Urban China," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(5), pages 664-674, 09.
  23. Shang-Jin Wei & Xiaobo Zhang, 2011. "Sex Ratios, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Growth in the People's Republic of China," NBER Working Papers 16800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Hongbin Li & Junjian Yi & Junsen Zhang, 2011. "Estimating the Effect of the One-Child Policy on the Sex Ratio Imbalance in China: Identification Based on the Difference-in-Differences," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(4), pages 1535-1557, November.
  25. Li, Hongbin & Yi, Junjian & Zhang, Junsen, 2015. "Fertility, Household Structure, and Parental Labor Supply: Evidence from Rural China," IZA Discussion Papers 9342, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  26. Nancy Qian, 2009. "Quantity-Quality and the One Child Policy:The Only-Child Disadvantage in School Enrollment in Rural China," NBER Working Papers 14973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
  28. M. Merli & Adrian Raftery, 2000. "Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 37(1), pages 109-126, February.
  29. Dudley Poston & Baochang Gu, 1987. "Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in China," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 24(4), pages 531-551, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9746. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.