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One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss

Author

Listed:
  • Wei Huang

    (Peking University)

  • Yinghao Pan

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Yi Zhou

    (Peking University)

Abstract

We investigate how exposure to the One-Child Policy (OCP) during early adulthood affects marriage and fertility in China. Exploring fertility penalties across provinces over time and the different implementations by ethnicity, we show that the OCP significantly increases the unmarried rate among the Han ethnicity but not among the minorities. The OCP increases Han-minority marriages in regions where Han-minority couples are allowed an additional child, but the impact is smaller in other regions. Finally, the deadweight loss caused by lower fertility accounts for 10% of annual household incomes, and policy-induced fewer marriages contribute to 30% of the fertility decline.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei Huang & Yinghao Pan & Yi Zhou, 2025. "One-Child Policy, Marriage Distortion, and Welfare Loss," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 107(5), pages 1341-1355, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:107:y:2025:i:5:p:1341-1355
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01332
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yuanwei, 2021. "Paying for the Selected Son: Sex Imbalance and Marriage Payments in China," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242436, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Liqiu Zhao & Minghai Zhou, 2018. "Do only children have poor vision? Evidence from China's One‐Child Policy," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1131-1146, July.
    3. Raiber, Eva, 2017. "Expected Fertility and Educational Investment: Evidence from the One-Child-Policy in China," TSE Working Papers 17-853, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Chen, Yi & Fang, Hanming, 2021. "The long-term consequences of China's “Later, Longer, Fewer” campaign in old age," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Baiyi Wu & Wenlong Bian & Ying Xue & Hao Zhang, 2021. "Confucian Culture and Homeownership: Evidence from Chinese Families," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 182-202, March.
    6. Zhang, Kezhong & He, Fan & Ma, Yuanyuan, 2021. "Sex ratios and mental health: Evidence from China," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    7. Huichao Du & Yun Xiao & Liqiu Zhao, 2021. "Education and gender role attitudes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 475-513, April.
    8. Lucie Giorgi & Eva Raiber, 2024. "For better or for babies: The effect of the two-child policy in China on who gets married," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 13, Stata Users Group.
    9. Dong, Yanfei & Li, Qingyuan, 2025. "Fertility policy and household labor supply: Evidence from China's Universal Two-Child Policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    10. Li, Wenchao & Song, Changcheng & Xu, Shu & Yi, Junjian, 2017. "Household Portfolio Choice, Reference Dependence, and the Marriage Market," IZA Discussion Papers 10528, IZA Network @ LISER.
    11. Yi Chen & Hanming Fang, 2018. "The Long-Term Consequences of Having Fewer Children in Old Age: Evidence from China’s “Later, Longer, Fewer” Campaign," NBER Working Papers 25041, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Lu, Di, 2018. "China’s Selective Two-Child Policy and Its Impact on the Marriage Market," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181586, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Pauline Rossi & Yun Xiao, 2024. "Spillovers in Childbearing Decisions and Fertility Transitions: Evidence from China," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 161-199.
    14. Yi Chen & Yingfei Huang, 2020. "The power of the government: China's Family Planning Leading Group and the fertility decline of the 1970s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(35), pages 985-1038.
    15. Fei Wang & Liqiu Zhao & Zhong Zhao, 2017. "China’s family planning policies and their labor market consequences," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 31-68, January.
    16. Jin, Zhangfeng & Pan, Shiyuan & Zheng, Zhijie, 2021. "The Unintended Consequences of Relaxing Birth Quotas: Theory and Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 819, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Shuxi Zeng & Fan Li & Peng Ding, 2020. "Is being an only child harmful to psychological health?: evidence from an instrumental variable analysis of China's one‐child policy," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(4), pages 1615-1635, October.
    18. Raiber, Eva, 2021. "Anticipated Children and Educational Investment: Evidence from the One-Child Policy in China," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242401, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Andrew Francis-Tan & Zheng Mu, 2019. "Racial Revolution: Understanding the Resurgence of Ethnic Minority Identity in Modern China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 38(5), pages 733-769, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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