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The Long-Term Effects of Early Track Choice

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Dustmann, Christian

    ()

    (University College London)

  • Puhani, Patrick A.

    ()

    (Leibniz University of Hannover)

  • Schönberg, Uta

    ()

    (University College London)

Abstract

Despite its efficiency in tailoring education to the needs of students, a tracking system has the inherent problem of misallocating students to tracks because of incomplete information at the time of the tracking decision. This paper investigates the effects of attending a more advanced track in middle school on long-term education and labor market outcomes for Germany, a country with a very rigorous tracking system where the risk of misallocating students to tracks is, due to the early age at which tracking takes place, particularly high. Our research design exploits quasi-random shifts between tracks induced by date of birth, and identifies the long-term effects of early track attendance for a group of marginal students most at risk of misallocation. Remarkably, we find no evidence that for these students, attending a more advanced track leads to more favorable long-term outcomes. We attribute this result to the up- and downgrading of students between tracks after middle school when more information about their potential is available. Overall, our findings underscore that flexibilities built into a tracking system, which allow students to revise initial track choices at a later stage, effectively remedy even a prolonged exposure to a less advanced school environment.

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File URL: http://ftp.iza.org/dp7897.pdf
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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 7897.

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Length: 63 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2014
Publication status: forthcoming in: Economic Journal
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7897
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IZA, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany

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Keywords: regression discontinuity design; peer effects; school quality; tracking;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
  • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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  1. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Wössmann, 2006. "Does Educational Tracking Affect Performance and Inequality? Differences- in-Differences Evidence Across Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(510), pages 63-76, 03.
  2. David J. Deming, 2011. "Better Schools, Less Crime?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 2063-2115.
  3. Kasey S. Buckles & Daniel M. Hungerman, 2013. "Season of Birth and Later Outcomes: Old Questions, New Answers," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 711-724, July.
  4. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Nathaniel Hilger & Emmanuel Saez & Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach & Danny Yagan, 2011. "How Does Your Kindergarten Classroom Affect Your Earnings? Evidence from Project Star," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(4), pages 1593-1660.
  5. Patrick Puhani & Andrea Weber, 2007. "Does the early bird catch the worm?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 359-386, May.
  6. Sandra E. Black & Paul J. Devereux & Kjell G. Salvanes, 2011. "Too Young to Leave the Nest? The Effects of School Starting Age," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 455-467, May.
  7. Clark Damon, 2010. "Selective Schools and Academic Achievement," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-40, February.
  8. Sari Pekkala Kerr & Tuomas Pekkarinen & Roope Uusitalo, 2013. "School Tracking and Development of Cognitive Skills," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(3), pages 577-602.
  9. Cullen, Julie Berry & Jacob, Brian A. & Levitt, Steven D., 2005. "The impact of school choice on student outcomes: an analysis of the Chicago Public Schools," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(5-6), pages 729-760, June.
  10. Caroline Hall, 2012. "The Effects of Reducing Tracking in Upper Secondary School: Evidence from a Large-Scale Pilot Scheme," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(1), pages 237-269.
  11. Malamud, Ofer & Pop-Eleches, Cristian, 2011. "School tracking and access to higher education among disadvantaged groups," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(11), pages 1538-1549.
  12. Atila Abdulkadiroğlu & Joshua Angrist & Parag Pathak, 2014. "The Elite Illusion: Achievement Effects at Boston and New York Exam Schools," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 137-196, 01.
  13. C. Kirabo Jackson, 2010. "Do Students Benefit from Attending Better Schools? Evidence from Rule-based Student Assignments in Trinidad and Tobago," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1399-1429, December.
  14. Nina Guyon & Eric Maurin & Sandra McNally, 2012. "The Effect of Tracking Students by Ability into Different Schools: A Natural Experiment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(3), pages 684-721.
  15. Raj Chetty & John N. Friedman & Jonah E. Rockoff, 2011. "The Long-Term Impacts of Teachers: Teacher Value-Added and Student Outcomes in Adulthood," NBER Working Papers 17699, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Christian Dustmann & Johannes Ludsteck & Uta Schönberg, 2009. "Revisiting the German Wage Structure," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(2), pages 843-881.
  17. Cristian Pop-Eleches & Miguel Urquiola, 2013. "Going to a Better School: Effects and Behavioral Responses," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1289-1324, June.
  18. Todd E. Elder & Darren H. Lubotsky, 2009. "Kindergarten Entrance Age and Children’s Achievement: Impacts of State Policies, Family Background, and Peers," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(3).
  19. Claire Crawford & Lorraine Dearden & Costas Meghir, 2007. "When You Are Born Matters: The Imapct of Date of Birth on Child Cognitive Outcomes in England," CEE Discussion Papers 0093, Centre for the Economics of Education, LSE.
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Cited by:

  1. Mathias Huebener & Jan Marcus, 2015. "Moving up a Gear: The Impact of Compressing Instructional Time into Fewer Years of Schooling," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1450, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Burgess, Simon & Dickson, Matt & Macmillan, Lindsey, 2014. "Selective Schooling Systems Increase Inequality," IZA Discussion Papers 8505, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Lange, Simon & von Werder, Marten, 2016. "Tracking and the Intergenerational Transmission of Education: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145784, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  4. Saurer, Judith & Felfe, Christina, 2014. "Granting Birthright Citizenship - A Door Opener for Immigrant Children's Educational Participation and Success?," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100548, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  5. Mathias Huebener & Susanne Kuger & Jan Marcus, 2016. "Increased Instruction Hours and the Widening Gap in Student Performance," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1561, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Schleithoff Fabian, 2014. "Ist Gesamtschule wirklich besser? Ein Beitrag zur Ordnungspolitik von Schulformen / Are Comprehensive Schools really better?," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 65(1), pages 303-328, January.
  7. Fitzenberger Bernd & Licklederer Stefanie, 2015. "Career Planning, School Grades, and Transitions: The Last Two Years in a German Lower Track Secondary School," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(4-5), pages 433-458, August.
  8. Friedericke von Haaren-Giebel, 2016. "Naturalisation and Investments in Children's Human Capital: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 854, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
  9. Simon Lange & Marten von Werder, 2014. "The Effects of Delayed Tracking: Evidence from German States," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 163, Courant Research Centre PEG.
  10. von Haaren-Giebel, Friederike, 2016. "Naturalisation and Investments in Children's Human Capital: Evidence from a Natural Experiment," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-576, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  11. Zimmermann, Markus & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Osikominu, Aderonke, 2016. "Cohort Changes in Educational Pathways and Returns to Education," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145927, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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