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The Radical Innovation Investment Decision Refined

Author

Listed:
  • Bilkic, Natasa

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Gries, Thomas

    (University of Paderborn)

  • Naudé, Wim

    (RWTH Aachen University)

Abstract

We refine modelling of the radical innovation decision in this paper by extending real option theory to include non-marginal stochastic jump processes. From the model analytics we determine that the average magnitude and frequency of non-marginal stochastic jump processes are the most important parameters in this highly uncertain decision process. We show that these stochastic shocks imply that investment in radical innovation may very often be too time consuming and/or expensive to remain attractive for private entrepreneurs.

Suggested Citation

  • Bilkic, Natasa & Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2013. "The Radical Innovation Investment Decision Refined," IZA Discussion Papers 7338, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7338
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gries, Thomas & Naudé, Wim, 2022. "Breakthroughs, Backlashes and Artificial General Intelligence: An Extended Real Options Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 15077, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Wim Naudé & José Amorós & Oscar Cristi, 2014. "“Surfeiting, the appetite may sicken”: entrepreneurship and happiness," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 523-540, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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