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Interpreting Time Horizon Effects in Inter-Temporal Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Dohmen, Thomas

    (University of Bonn and IZA)

  • Falk, Armin

    (University of Bonn)

  • Huffman, David B.

    (University of Pittsburgh)

  • Sunde, Uwe

    (University of Munich)

Abstract

We compare different designs that have been used to test for an impact of time horizon on discounting, using real incentives and two representative data sets. With the most commonly used type of design we replicate the typical finding of declining (hyperbolic) discounting, but with other designs find constant or increasing discounting. As a whole, the data are not consistent with any of these usual candidate discounting assumptions, and they also imply a violation of transitivity. The results have implications for interpreting previous evidence, and pose an important puzzle for understanding inter-temporal choice.

Suggested Citation

  • Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David B. & Sunde, Uwe, 2012. "Interpreting Time Horizon Effects in Inter-Temporal Choice," IZA Discussion Papers 6385, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6385
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    Cited by:

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    2. Reuben, Ernesto & Sapienza, Paola & Zingales, Luigi, 2015. "Procrastination and impatience," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 63-76.
    3. Dziewulski, Paweł, 2018. "Revealed time preference," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 67-77.
    4. David Huffman & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2016. "Time Discounting and Economic Decision-making among the Elderly," Working Papers wp347, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    5. Pia R. Pinger, 2017. "Thinking about Tomorrow? Predicting Experimental Choice Behavior and Life Outcomes from a Survey Measure of Present Bias," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 935, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    6. Thomas Huizen & Janneke Plantenga, 2014. "Job Search Behaviour and Time Preferences: Testing Exponential Versus Hyperbolic Discounting," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 223-245, September.
    7. Non, Arjan & Tempelaar, Dirk, 2016. "Time preferences, study effort, and academic performance," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 36-61.
    8. Felipe Vásquez & Walter Gómez & Hugo Salgado & Carlos Chávez, 2013. "Using Stated Preference Methods to Design Cost-Effective Subsidy Programs to Induce Technology Adoption. An Application to a Stove Program in Southern Chile," Past Working Papers 12, Universidad del Desarrollo, School of Business and Economics, revised 2015.
    9. Dziewulski, Pawel, 2014. "Revealed time-preference," MPRA Paper 56596, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Freeman, David & Manzini, Paola & Mariotti, Marco & Mittone, Luigi, 2016. "Procedures for eliciting time preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 126(PA), pages 235-242.
    11. Thomas Epper & Helga Fehr-Duda, 2012. "The missing link: unifying risk taking and time discounting," ECON - Working Papers 096, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised Oct 2018.
    12. Dohmen, Thomas, 2014. "Behavioral labor economics: Advances and future directions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 71-85.
    13. Vischer, Thomas & Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Schupp, Jürgen & Sunde, Uwe & Wagner, Gert G., 2013. "Validating an ultra-short survey measure of patience," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 142-145.
    14. Potters, Jan & Riedl, A. & Smeets, Paul, 2016. "Towards a Practical and Scientifically Sound Tool for Measuring Time and Risk Preferences in Pension Savings Decisions," Other publications TiSEM db8f7fd6-cd3c-44a5-a0ec-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Bisin, Alberto & Hyndman, Kyle, 2020. "Present-bias, procrastination and deadlines in a field experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 339-357.
    16. Sebastian Schweighofer-Kodritsch, 2015. "Time Preferences and Bargaining," STICERD - Theoretical Economics Paper Series /2015/568, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    17. Alan, Sule & Ertac, Seda, 2015. "Patience, self-control and the demand for commitment: Evidence from a large-scale field experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 111-122.
    18. Alves, Guillermo & Blanchard, Pablo & Burdin, Gabriel & Chávez, Mariana & Dean, Andrés, 2022. "Like principal, like agent? Managerial preferences in employee-owned firms," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 877-899, December.
    19. Wölbert, E.M. & Riedl, A.M., 2013. "Measuring time and risk preferences: Reliability, stability, domain specificity," Research Memorandum 041, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    20. Epper, Thomas & Fehr-Duda, Helga, 2017. "A Tale of Two Tails: On the Coexistence of Overweighting and Underweighting of Rare Extreme Events," Economics Working Paper Series 1705, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
    21. Gopi Shah Goda & Matthew R. Levy & Colleen Flaherty Manchester & Aaron Sojourner & Joshua Tasoff, 2015. "The Role of Time Preferences and Exponential-Growth Bias in Retirement Savings," NBER Working Papers 21482, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Guillermo Alves & Pablo Blanchard & Gabriel Burdin & Mariana Chávez & Andrés Dean, 2019. "The Economic Preferences of Cooperative Managers," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-08, Instituto de Economía - IECON.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    time preference; hyperbolic discounting; self-control; dynamic inconsistency; intransitivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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