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Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions

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  • Bertrand Gruss
  • Mr. Malhar S Nabar
  • Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro

Abstract

This paper investigates how country-specific external demand, external financial conditions, and terms of trade affect medium-term growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies and the occurrence of growth accelerations and reversals. The importance of country-specific external conditions for medium-term growth has increased over time—in particular, the growing contribution of external financial conditions accounts for one-third of the increase in average income per capita growth between 1995–2004 and 2005–14. Stronger external demand and financial conditions significantly increase the probability of growth accelerations, while a strengthening of any of the three conditions significantly decreases the probability of reversals.

Suggested Citation

  • Bertrand Gruss & Mr. Malhar S Nabar & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2018. "Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: The Role of External Conditions," IMF Working Papers 2018/052, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/052
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aizenman, Joshua & Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2010. "The emerging global financial architecture: Tracing and evaluating new patterns of the trilemma configuration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 615-641, June.
    2. Gustavo Adler & Romain A Duval & Davide Furceri & Sinem Kılıç Çelik & Ksenia Koloskova & Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2017. "Gone with the Headwinds; Global Productivity," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 17/04, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Thomas F Alexander & Claudia H Dziobek & Marco Marini & Eric Metreau & Michael Stanger, 2017. "Measure up; A Better Way to Calculate GDP," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 17/02, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ai, Chunrong & Norton, Edward C., 2003. "Interaction terms in logit and probit models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 123-129, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. José De Gregorio, 2018. "Productivity in Emerging Market Economies: Slowdown or Stagnation?," Working Papers wp471, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    2. Jingwen Huo & Peipei Chen & Klaus Hubacek & Heran Zheng & Jing Meng & Dabo Guan, 2022. "Full‐scale, near real‐time multi‐regional input–output table for the global emerging economies (EMERGING)," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1218-1232, August.
    3. Bertrand Gruss & Mr. Malhar S Nabar & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro, 2019. "Domestic Amplifiers of External Shocks: Growth Accelerations and Reversals in Emerging Market and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 2019/128, International Monetary Fund.

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