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Emerging Market Portfolio Flows: The Role of Benchmark-Driven Investors

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  • Mr. Serkan Arslanalp
  • Mr. Takahiro Tsuda

Abstract

Portfolio flows to emerging markets (EMs) tend to be correlated. A possible explanation is the role global benchmarks play in allocating capital internationally, the so-called “benchmark effect.” This paper finds that benchmark-driven investors indeed play a large role in a key segment of the market—the EM local currency government bond market—, accounting for more than one third of total foreign holdings as of end-2014. We find that the prominence of these investors declined somewhat after the May 2013 taper tantrum, but remain high. This distinction is important in understanding the drivers of EM capital flows and their sensitivity to different types of shocks. In particular, a high share of benchmark-driven investors may result in capital flows that are more sensitive to global shocks and less sensitive to country factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Serkan Arslanalp & Mr. Takahiro Tsuda, 2015. "Emerging Market Portfolio Flows: The Role of Benchmark-Driven Investors," IMF Working Papers 2015/263, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/263
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastián García-Andrade, 2019. "Efectos del rebalanceo de los índices de J.P. Morgan en 2014 sobre los rendimientos de los TES en moneda local," Borradores de Economia 1094, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Gadanecz, Blaise & Miyajima, Ken & Shu, Chang, 2018. "Emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields: The role of exchange rate risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 371-401.
    3. Amr Hosny, 2020. "Nonresident holdings of domestic debt in Nigeria: Internal or external driven?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 32(3), pages 472-485, September.
    4. Cormier, Benjamin & Naqvi, Natalya, 2023. "Delegating discipline: how indexes restructured the political economy of sovereign bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117248, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Nathali Cardozo-Alvarado & David Castañeda-Arévalo & Fredy Gamboa-Estrada & Javier Miguelez-Márquez, 2023. "The Global Financial Cycle and the Effects of Fed Unconventional Monetary Policies on Foreign Portfolio Flows in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1226, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Gelos, Gaston & Gornicka, Lucyna & Koepke, Robin & Sahay, Ratna & Sgherri, Silvia, 2022. "Capital flows at risk: Taming the ebbs and flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Konopczak, Michal, 2015. "Government debt holdings of non-residents – an analysis of the impact on selected emerging economies’ sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 68597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. OGAWA, Eiji & SHIMIZU, Junko & LUO, Pengfei, 2023. "Effects of Us Interest Rate Hike and Global Risk on Daily Capital Flows in Emerging Market Countries," Hitotsubashi Journal of commerce and management, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 57(1), pages 1-31, October.
    9. Chen, Yang & Feng, Yun & Liu, Qing & Zhang, Zhipeng, 2025. "Does benchmark-driven investment amplify the impact of the global financial cycle on emerging markets?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    10. Oscar Botero-Ramírez & Andrés Murcia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2025. "Foreign investment dynamics: The impact of benchmark-driven versus unconstrained investors on local credit conditions," Borradores de Economia 1309, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66.
    12. Antonelli, Stefano & Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2022. "Benchmark effects from the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI EM index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    13. Bush Georgia & Cañón Salazar Carlos Iván & Gray Daniel, 2021. "Emerging market capital flows the role of fund manager portfolio allocation," Working Papers 2021-13, Banco de México.
    14. Romero, José Vicente & Vargas, Hernando & Cardozo, Pamela & Murcia, Andrés, 2021. "How foreign participation in the Colombian local public debt market has influenced domestic financial conditions," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(4).
    15. Alessandro Moro & Alessandro Schiavone, 2022. "The role of non-bank financial institutions in the intermediation of capital flows to emerging markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1367, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    16. Bruno Bonizzi & Annina Kaltenbrunner, 2019. "Liability-driven investment and pension fund exposure to emerging markets: A Minskyan analysis," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 51(2), pages 420-439, March.
    17. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2022. "Global financial risk, the risk-taking channel, and monetary policy in emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    18. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2021. "From taper tantrum to Covid-19: Portfolio flows to emerging markets in periods of stress," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    19. Bredenkamp, Hugh & Hausmann, Ricardo & Pienkowski, Alex & Reinhart, Carmen, 2019. "Challenges Ahead: Sovereign Debt," MPRA Paper 117564, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Oct 2019.
    20. Gamboa-Estrada, Fredy & Sanchez-Jabba, Andres, 2024. "The effects of foreign investor composition on Colombia's sovereign debt flows," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    21. Arslanalp, Serkan & Eichengreen, Barry & Simpson-Bell, Chima, 2022. "The stealth erosion of dollar dominance and the rise of nontraditional reserve currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    22. Miss Yinqiu Lu & Dmitry Yakovlev, 2018. "Instruments, Investor Base, and Recent Developments in the Malaysian Government Bond Market," IMF Working Papers 2018/095, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Bush, Georgia & Cañón, Carlos, 2025. "Capital flows: The role of investment fund portfolio managers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    24. Guilherme Suedekum, 2023. "Local Currency Sovereign Debt Markets, Global Financial Conditions and the Role of Foreign Investors," IHEID Working Papers 19-2023, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.

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