IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfscr/2015-337.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues

Author

Listed:
  • International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This Selected Issues paper analyzes income convergence and medium-term growth potential for Estonia. Estonia’s potential growth is projected to average some 3 percent over the next five years and 2.75 percent over the next two decades, implying continued income convergence with European Union levels, albeit at only half its historical pace. A number of policy enhancements could lift growth above this central projection. These include a greater operational policy focus on raising productivity growth, scaling up a number of envisaged pro-growth programs, supporting the upgrading of traditional industries as a second leg of innovation policy, and fully restoring Estonia’s high investment.

Suggested Citation

  • International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/337, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2015/337
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43455
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Yusuf , Shahid & Nabeshima, Kaoru, 2009. "Can Malaysia escape the middle-income Trap ? a strategy for Penang," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4971, The World Bank.
    3. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    4. Aiyar, Shekhar & Duval, Romain & Puy, Damien & Wu, Yiqun & Zhang, Longmei, 2018. "Growth slowdowns and the middle-income trap," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 22-37.
    5. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Fukunari KIMURA & Tomohiro MACHIKITA, 2010. "Firm-level Analysis of Globalization: A Survey of the Eight Literatures," Working Papers DP-2010-05, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    6. Fernando Gabriel Im & David Rosenblatt, 2015. "Middle-Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-39.
    7. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    8. Harvey W. Armstrong & Robert Read, 1998. "Trade and Growth in Small States: The Impact of Global Trade Liberalisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(4), pages 563-585, June.
    9. Maurice Schiff & Yanling Wang, 2008. "North-South and South-South Trade-Related Technology Diffusion: How Important Are They in Improving TFP Growth?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 49-59.
    10. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    11. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1998. "Market Structure and the Growth Process," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 276-305, January.
    12. Ramey, Garey & Ramey, Valerie A, 1995. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(5), pages 1138-1151, December.
    13. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
    14. Holger Gorg & Frances Ruane, 2001. "Multinational Companies and Linkages: Panel-Data Evidence for the Irish Electronics Sector," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18.
    15. Roger Smeets, 2008. "Collecting the Pieces of the FDI Knowledge Spillovers Puzzle," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 23(2), pages 107-138, March.
    16. Anna Jankowska & Arne Nagengast & José Ramón Perea, 2012. "The Middle-Income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences," OECD Development Centre Policy Insights 96, OECD Publishing.
    17. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2006. "Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(1), pages 37-74, March.
    18. Lin,Justin Yifu, 2009. "Economic Development and Transition," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521514521.
    19. Milner, Chris & Westaway, Tony, 1993. "Country size and the medium-term growth process: Some cross-country evidence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-211, February.
    20. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Romain Duval & Florence Jaumotte, 2004. "Coping with Ageing: A Dynamic Approach to Quantify the Impact of Alternative Policy Options on Future Labour Supply in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 371, OECD Publishing.
    21. Justin Lin & David Rosenblatt, 2012. "Shifting patterns of economic growth and rethinking development," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 171-194.
    22. S. Kuznets, 1960. "Economic Growth Of Small Nations," International Economic Association Series, in: E. A. G. Robinson (ed.), Economic Consequences of the Size of Nations, chapter 0, pages 14-32, Palgrave Macmillan.
    23. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius, 2014. "A parsimonious approach to incorporating economic information in measures of potential output," BIS Working Papers 442, Bank for International Settlements.
    24. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6798.
    25. Easterly, William & Rebelo, Sergio, 1993. "Fiscal policy and economic growth: An empirical investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 417-458, December.
    26. Karsten Staehr, 2015. "Economic Growth and Convergence in the Baltic States: Caught in a Middle-Income Trap?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 50(5), pages 274-280, September.
    27. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov, 2015. "The Leap of the Tiger: How Malaysia Can Escape the Middle-Income Trap," IMF Working Papers 2015/131, International Monetary Fund.
    28. repec:ilo:ilowps:338944 is not listed on IDEAS
    29. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    30. repec:lan:wpaper:898 is not listed on IDEAS
    31. Sohn, Dong-Won & Kenney, Martin, 2007. "Universities, Clusters, and Innovation Systems: The Case of Seoul, Korea," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 991-1004, June.
    32. repec:lan:wpaper:899 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Felipe, Jesus, 2012. "Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? Part 2," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 307, Asian Development Bank.
    34. Rasmus Kattai, 2010. "Potential output and the output gap in Estonia - a macro model based evalutaion," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 11 Feb 2010.
    35. Engelbrecht, Hans-Jurgen, 1997. "International R&D spillovers, human capital and productivity in OECD economies: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1479-1488, August.
    36. Greenaway, David & Foster, Neil, 2002. "North-South Trade, Knowledge Spillovers and Growth," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 17, pages 650-670.
    37. Farrugia, Charles, 1993. "The special working environment of senior administrators in small states," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 221-226, February.
    38. Anna Jankowska & Arne Nagengast & José Ramón Perea, 2012. "The Product Space and the Middle-Income Trap: Comparing Asian and Latin American Experiences," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 311, OECD Publishing.
    39. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    40. Peter J. Klenow & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 1997. "The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone Too Far?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 73-114, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Bai, Chong-En & Ma, Hong & Pan, Wenqing, 2012. "Spatial spillover and regional economic growth in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 982-990.
    42. Briguglio, Lino, 1995. "Small island developing states and their economic vulnerabilities," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1615-1632, September.
    43. Justin Yifu Lin & David Rosenblatt, 2012. "Shifting patterns of economic growth and rethinking development," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 171-194, September.
    44. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2001. "Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Working Papers 0108, Banco de España.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2020. "China in the middle-income trap?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
    3. Fernando Gabriel Im & David Rosenblatt, 2015. "Middle-Income Traps: A Conceptual and Empirical Survey," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-39.
    4. Razafimandimby Andrianjaka, Riana & Rougier, Eric, 2019. "“What difference does it make (to be in the Middle Income Trap)?”: An empirical exploration of the drivers of growth slowdowns," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 225-236.
    5. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 2000. "Small States, Small Problems? Income, Growth, and Volatility in Small States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2013-2027, November.
    6. Riana Razafimandimby Andrianjaka & Eric Rougier, 2017. "What difference does it make? Revue de littérature et analyse empirique des déterminants de la Trappe à Revenu Intermédiaire," Cahiers du GREThA (2007-2019) 2017-16, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée (GREThA).
    7. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    8. Pierre-Richard AGENOR, 2016. "Caught in the Middle? The Economics of Middle-Income Traps," Working Papers P142, FERDI.
    9. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2017. "Caught In The Middle? The Economics Of Middle-Income Traps," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 771-791, July.
    10. Richard Harrison & William Scheela & P. C. Lai & Sivapalan Vivekarajah, 2018. "Beyond institutional voids and the middle-income trap: The emerging business angel market in Malaysia," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 965-991, December.
    11. Easterly, William & Kraay, Aart, 1999. "Small states, small problems?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2139, The World Bank.
    12. Satoru Kumagai, 2015. "The Middle-Income Trap from the Viewpoint of Trade Structures: Are the Geese Trapped or Still Flying?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 6(03), pages 1-23.
    13. Allaoui, Elhassen & Tidjani, Chemseddine & Lacheheb, Miloud, 2015. "“Middle Income Trap”; the position of Algerian economy: a comparative analysis overview," MPRA Paper 91745, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Mar 2019.
    14. Vivarelli, Marco, 2018. "Globalisation, structural change and innovation in emerging economies: The impact on employment and skills," MERIT Working Papers 2018-037, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    15. Vivarelli, Marco, 2014. "Structural Change and Innovation as Exit Strategies from the Middle Income Trap," IZA Discussion Papers 8148, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Rigg, Jonathan & Promphaking, Buapun & Le Mare, Ann, 2014. "Personalizing the Middle-Income Trap: An Inter-Generational Migrant View from Rural Thailand," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 184-198.
    17. Marco Vivarelli, 2015. "Structural Change and Innovation in Developing Economies: A Way Out of the Middle Income Trap ?," LEM Papers Series 2015/09, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    18. Marco Vivarelli, 2014. "The Middle Income Trap: A Way Out Based on Technological and Structural Change," DISCE - Quaderni del Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali dises1403, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    19. William Easterly & Ross Levine, 2002. "It´s Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.),Economic Growth: Sources, Trends, and Cycles, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 3, pages 061-114, Central Bank of Chile.
    20. Gill,Indermit S. & Kharas,Homi, 2015. "The middle-income trap turns ten," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7403, The World Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfscr:2015/337. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.