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Optimal Growth and Uncertainty: Learning

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Abstract

We introduce learning in a Brock-Mirman environment and study the effect of risk generated by the planner's econometric activity on optimal consumption and investment. Here, learning introduces two sources of risk about future payoffs: structural uncertainty and uncertainty from the anticipation of learning. The latter renders control and learning nonseparable. We present two sets of results in a learning environment. First, conditions under which the introduction of learning increases or decreases optimal consumption are provided. The effect depends on the strengths and directions of the two sources of risk, which may pull in opposite directions. Second, the effects of changes in the mean and riskiness of the distribution of the signal and initial beliefs on optimal consumption are studied.

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  • Christos Koulovatianos & Leonard J. Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2007. "Optimal Growth and Uncertainty: Learning," Cahiers de recherche 07-05, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée, revised Feb 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:iea:carech:0705
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:57:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Santanu Roy & Itzhak Zilcha, 2012. "Stochastic growth with short-run prediction of shocks," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 51(3), pages 539-580, November.
    3. Koulovatianos, Christos & Wieland, Volker, 2011. "Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters," IMFS Working Paper Series 46, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    4. Christos Koulovatianos, "undated". "A Paradox of Environmental Awareness Campaigns," Discussion Papers 10/17, University of Nottingham, School of Economics.
    5. Daher, Wassim & Mirman, Leonard J. & Santugini, Marc, 2012. "Information in Cournot: Signaling with incomplete control," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 361-370.
    6. Leonard J. Mirman & Kevin Reffett & Marc Santugini, 2016. "On learning and growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(4), pages 641-684, April.
    7. Eric Fesselmeyer & Leonard J. Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2016. "Strategic Interactions in a One-Sector Growth Model," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 209-224, June.
    8. Nahid Masoudi & Marc Santugini & Georges Zaccour, 2016. "A Dynamic Game of Emissions Pollution with Uncertainty and Learning," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(3), pages 349-372, July.
    9. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Local Learning Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(57), pages 1-15.
    10. Agbo, Maxime, 2014. "Strategic exploitation with learning and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 126-140.
    11. Leonard Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2014. "Learning and Technological Progress in Dynamic Games," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 58-72, March.
    12. Christos Koulovatianos, 2015. "Strategic Exploitation of a Common-Property Resource Under Rational Learning About its Reproduction," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 94-119, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Growth; Uncertainty; Learning; Dynamic Programming;

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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