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Optimal Growth and Uncertainty: Learning

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We introduce learning in a Brock-Mirman environment and study the effect of risk generated by the planner's econometric activity on optimal consumption and investment. Here, learning introduces two sources of risk about future payoffs: structural uncertainty and uncertainty from the anticipation of learning. The latter renders control and learning nonseparable. We present two sets of results in a learning environment. First, conditions under which the introduction of learning increases or decreases optimal consumption are provided. The effect depends on the strengths and directions of the two sources of risk, which may pull in opposite directions. Second, the effects of changes in the mean and riskiness of the distribution of the signal and initial beliefs on optimal consumption are studied.

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  • Christos Koulovatianos & Leonard J. Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2007. "Optimal Growth and Uncertainty: Learning," Cahiers de recherche 07-05, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée, revised Feb 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:iea:carech:0705
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    Cited by:

    1. N. Quérou & M. Tidball, 2014. "Consistent conjectures in a dynamic model of non-renewable resource management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 220(1), pages 159-180, September.
    2. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2008:i:57:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Santanu Roy & Itzhak Zilcha, 2012. "Stochastic growth with short-run prediction of shocks," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 51(3), pages 539-580, November.
    4. Koulovatianos, Christos & Wieland, Volker, 2011. "Asset pricing under rational learning about rare disasters," IMFS Working Paper Series 46, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    5. Koulovatianos, Christos, 2010. "A Paradox of Environmental Awareness Campaigns," MPRA Paper 27260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Daher, Wassim & Mirman, Leonard J. & Santugini, Marc, 2012. "Information in Cournot: Signaling with incomplete control," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 361-370.
    7. Leonard J. Mirman & Kevin Reffett & Marc Santugini, 2016. "On learning and growth," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(4), pages 641-684, April.
    8. Nahid Masoudi & Marc Santugini & Georges Zaccour, 2016. "A Dynamic Game of Emissions Pollution with Uncertainty and Learning," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 64(3), pages 349-372, July.
    9. Eric Fesselmeyer & Leonard J. Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2013. "Strategic Interactions in a One-Sector Growth Model," Cahiers de recherche 1318, CIRPEE.
    10. Orlando Gomes, 2008. "Local Learning Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(57), pages 1-15.
    11. Timothy Cogley & Boyan Jovanovic, 2022. "Structural Breaks in an Endogenous Growth Model [Monetary Policy Regimes and Beliefs]," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 666-694.
    12. Agbo, Maxime, 2014. "Strategic exploitation with learning and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 126-140.
    13. Leonard Mirman & Marc Santugini, 2014. "Learning and Technological Progress in Dynamic Games," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 58-72, March.
    14. Fu, Wentao & Le Riche, Antoine, 2021. "Endogenous growth model with Bayesian learning and technology selection," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 58-71.
    15. Christos Koulovatianos, 2015. "Strategic Exploitation of a Common-Property Resource Under Rational Learning About its Reproduction," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 94-119, March.
    16. Koulovatianos, Christos & Mavridis, Dimitris, 2018. "Increasing taxes after a financial crisis: Not a bad idea after all ..," CFS Working Paper Series 614, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal Growth; Uncertainty; Learning; Dynamic Programming;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D9 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment

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