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Consistent conjectures in a dynamic model of non-renewable resource management

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  • N. Quérou

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  • M. Tidball

Abstract

We consider a model of non-renewable resource extraction where players do not know their opponents’ utility functions and form conjectures on the behavior of others. Two forms of beliefs are introduced, one based on the state of the resource, the other on this state and on the others’ strategy (their consumption). We focus on consistent equilibria, where beliefs must be consistent with observed past plays. Closed form expressions of the optimal policies are derived. Comparisons are made with the full information benchmark case. With strategy and state based beliefs, the agents may behave more (respectively, less) aggressively than in the non-cooperative benchmark depending on the initial consumption level. When initial consumption is low, the optimal consumption path lies below that of the cooperative benchmark. We conclude the analysis by discussing the impact of public policies on the agents’ choice of consumption patterns, and the robustness of the results for the case of renewable resources. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2014

Suggested Citation

  • N. Quérou & M. Tidball, 2014. "Consistent conjectures in a dynamic model of non-renewable resource management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 220(1), pages 159-180, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:220:y:2014:i:1:p:159-180:10.1007/s10479-012-1114-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10479-012-1114-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Brito & Bipasa Datta & Huw Dixon, 2011. "The evolution of mixed conjectures in the rent-extraction game," Discussion Papers 11/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Paulo Brito & Bipasa Datta & Huw Dixon, 2012. "The evolution of the mixed conjectures in the rent-extraction game," Discussion Papers 12/33, Department of Economics, University of York.

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