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The Evolutionary Stability of Constant Consistent Conjectures

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  • Alex Possajennikov

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Abstract

In the general context of smooth two-player games, this paper shows that there is a close connection between (constant) consistent conjectures in a given game and the evolutionary stability of these conjectures. Evolutionarily stable conjectures are consistent and consistent conjectures are the only interior candidates to be evolutionarily stable. Examples are provided to illustrate the result.

Suggested Citation

  • Alex Possajennikov, 2009. "The Evolutionary Stability of Constant Consistent Conjectures," Post-Print hal-00701872, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00701872
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2009.05.013
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00701872
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    File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00701872/document
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Boyer, Marcel & Moreaux, Michel, 1983. "Consistent versus Non-Consistent Conjectures in Doupoly Theory: Some Examples," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 97-110, September.
    2. Lindh, Thomas, 1992. "The inconsistency of consistent conjectures : Coming back to Cournot," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 69-90, June.
    3. Jean-Marie, Alain & Tidball, Mabel, 2006. "Adapting behaviors through a learning process," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 399-422, July.
    4. Dixon, Huw D. & Somma, Ernesto, 2003. "The evolution of consistent conjectures," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 523-536, August.
    5. Robert Michaels, 1989. "Conjectural variations and the nature of equilibrium in rent-seeking models," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 31-39, January.
    6. Milgrom, Paul & Roberts, John, 1990. "Rationalizability, Learning, and Equilibrium in Games with Strategic Complementarities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1255-1277, November.
    7. Friedman, James W. & Mezzetti, Claudio, 2002. "Bounded rationality, dynamic oligopoly, and conjectural variations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 287-306, November.
    8. Bresnahan, Timothy F, 1981. "Duopoly Models with Consistent Conjectures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 934-945, December.
    9. Dockner, Engelbert J, 1992. "A Dynamic Theory of Conjectural Variations," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(4), pages 377-395, December.
    10. Costrell, Robert M., 1991. "Immiserizing growth with semi-public goods under consistent conjectures," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 383-389, August.
    11. Wieland Müller & Hans-Theo Normann, 2005. "Conjectural Variations and Evolutionary Stability: A Rationale for Consistency," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 161(3), pages 491-491, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Brito & Bipasa Datta & Huw Dixon, 2011. "The evolution of mixed conjectures in the rent-extraction game," Discussion Papers 11/06, Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. N. Quérou & M. Tidball, 2014. "Consistent conjectures in a dynamic model of non-renewable resource management," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 220(1), pages 159-180, September.
    3. Paulo Brito & Bipasa Datta & Huw Dixon, 2012. "The evolution of the mixed conjectures in the rent-extraction game," Discussion Papers 12/33, Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. John Heywood & Zheng Wang, 2016. "Consistent location conjectures under spatial price discrimination," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 117(2), pages 167-180, March.
    5. Alex Possajennikov, 2016. "Evolution of Consistent Conjectures in Semi-Aggregative Representation of Games, with Applications to Public Good Games and Contests," Discussion Papers 2016-08, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    6. Leppänen, Ilkka, 2016. "Consistent conjectures and the evolutionary stability of other-regarding preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 53-55.
    7. repec:eee:eneeco:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:154-165 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Possajennikov, Alex, 2015. "Conjectural variations in aggregative games: An evolutionary perspective," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 55-61.
    9. repec:spr:joevec:v:28:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00191-017-0529-1 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    C72; D43; L13; Consistent conjectures; Evolutionary stability; Indirect evolution;

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

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