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Nonparametric Estimation of An Instrumental Regression: A Quasi-Bayesian Approach Based on Regularized Posterior

  • Florens, Jean-Pierre
  • Simoni, Anna
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    We propose a Quasi-Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the structural relationship ' among endogenous variables when instruments are available. We show that the posterior distribution of ' is inconsistent in the frequentist sense. We interpret this fact as the ill-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem defined by the relation that characterizes the structural function '. To solve this problem, we construct a regularized posterior distribution, based on a Tikhonov regularization of the inverse of the marginal variance of the sample, which is justified by a penalized projection argument. This regularized posterior distribution is consistent in the frequentist sense and its mean can be interpreted as the mean of the exact posterior distribution resulting from a gaussian prior distribution with a shrinking covariance operator.

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    Paper provided by Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse in its series IDEI Working Papers with number 622.

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    Date of creation: Mar 2010
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    Publication status: Published in Journal of Econometrics, vol.�170, n°2, octobre 2012, p.�458-475.
    Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:22800
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    1. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Johannes, Jan & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2009. "Instrumental Regression in Partially Linear Models," IDEI Working Papers 613, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    2. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 1998. "Central Limit And Functional Central Limit Theorems For Hilbert-Valued Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays With Applications," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 260-284, April.
    3. Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Linear Inverse Problems in Structural Econometrics Estimation Based on Spectral Decomposition and Regularization," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 77 Elsevier.
    4. Frédérique Fève & Jean-Pierre Florens, 2010. "The practice of non-parametric estimation by solving inverse problems: the example of transformation models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages S1-S27, October.
    5. Xiaohong Chen & Markus Reiss, 2007. "On rate optimality for ill-posed inverse problems in econometrics," CeMMAP working papers CWP20/07, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Generalization Of Gmm To A Continuum Of Moment Conditions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 797-834, December.
    7. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Johannes, Jan & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2009. "Identification and Estimation by Penalization in Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," TSE Working Papers 09-076, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    8. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, 09.
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