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Nonparametric Estimation of An Instrumental Regression: A Quasi-Bayesian Approach Based on Regularized Posterior

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  • Florens, Jean-Pierre
  • Simoni, Anna

Abstract

We propose a Quasi-Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the structural relationship ' among endogenous variables when instruments are available. We show that the posterior distribution of ' is inconsistent in the frequentist sense. We interpret this fact as the ill-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem defined by the relation that characterizes the structural function '. To solve this problem, we construct a regularized posterior distribution, based on a Tikhonov regularization of the inverse of the marginal variance of the sample, which is justified by a penalized projection argument. This regularized posterior distribution is consistent in the frequentist sense and its mean can be interpreted as the mean of the exact posterior distribution resulting from a gaussian prior distribution with a shrinking covariance operator.

Suggested Citation

  • Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simoni, Anna, 2010. "Nonparametric Estimation of An Instrumental Regression: A Quasi-Bayesian Approach Based on Regularized Posterior," IDEI Working Papers 622, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
  • Handle: RePEc:ide:wpaper:22800
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Frédérique Fève & Jean-Pierre Florens, 2010. "The practice of non-parametric estimation by solving inverse problems: the example of transformation models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages 1-27, October.
    2. Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre, 2000. "Generalization Of Gmm To A Continuum Of Moment Conditions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 797-834, December.
    3. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simoni, Anna, 2016. "Regularizing Priors For Linear Inverse Problems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 71-121, February.
    4. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524131, March.
    5. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Johannes, Jan & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2011. "Identification And Estimation By Penalization In Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 472-496, June.
    6. Chen, Xiaohong & Reiss, Markus, 2011. "On Rate Optimality For Ill-Posed Inverse Problems In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 497-521, June.
    7. Jean-Pierre Florens & Anna Simoni, 2012. "Regularized Posteriors in Linear Ill-Posed Inverse Problems," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 39(2), pages 214-235, June.
    8. Jean‐Pierre Florens & Jan Johannes & Sébastien Van Bellegem, 2012. "Instrumental regression in partially linear models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 15(2), pages 304-324, June.
    9. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818735, March.
    10. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524124, March.
    11. S. Darolles & Y. Fan & J. P. Florens & E. Renault, 2011. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1541-1565, September.
    12. Richard Blundell & James L. Powell, 2001. "Endogeneity in nonparametric and semiparametric regression models," CeMMAP working papers CWP09/01, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    13. Richard Blundell & Xiaohong Chen & Dennis Kristensen, 2007. "Semi-Nonparametric IV Estimation of Shape-Invariant Engel Curves," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1613-1669, November.
    14. Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Linear Inverse Problems in Structural Econometrics Estimation Based on Spectral Decomposition and Regularization," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 77 Elsevier.
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    16. Gagliardini, Patrick & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Tikhonov regularization for nonparametric instrumental variable estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 61-75.
    17. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, September.
    18. Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1795-1843, November.
    19. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818728, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Simoni, Anna, 2016. "Regularizing Priors For Linear Inverse Problems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 71-121, February.
    2. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy Christensen, 2013. "Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates for Sieve Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Regression," Papers 1311.0412, arXiv.org.
    3. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen, 2013. "Optimal uniform convergence rates for sieve nonparametric instrumental variables regression," CeMMAP working papers CWP56/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    4. Joel L. Horowitz, 2013. "Adaptive nonparametric instrumental variables estimation: empirical choice of the regularization parameter," CeMMAP working papers CWP30/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy M. Christensen, 2015. "Optimal sup-norm rates, adaptivity and inference in nonparametric instrumental variables estimation," CeMMAP working papers CWP32/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    6. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy Christensen, 2013. "Optimal Uniform Convergence Rates for Sieve Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1923, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Centorrino Samuele & Feve Frederique & Florens Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Additive Nonparametric Instrumental Regressions: A Guide to Implementation," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-25, January.
    8. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Historical Developments in Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-191/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Xiaohong Chen & Timothy Christensen, 2013. "Optimal Sup-norm Rates, Adaptivity and Inference in Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1923R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Apr 2015.
    10. Xiaohong Chen & Yin Jia Qiu, 2016. "Methods for Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regressions with Endogeneity: a Gentle Guide," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2032, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & S. Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2014. "On the Rise of Bayesian Econometrics after Cowles Foundation Monographs 10, 14," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-085/III, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Sep 2014.
    12. Liao, Yuan & Simoni, Anna, 2012. "Semi-parametric Bayesian Partially Identified Models based on Support Function," MPRA Paper 43262, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Horowitz, Joel L., 2014. "Adaptive nonparametric instrumental variables estimation: Empirical choice of the regularization parameter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(2), pages 158-173.
    14. Liao, Yuan & Jiang, Wenxin, 2011. "Posterior consistency of nonparametric conditional moment restricted models," MPRA Paper 38700, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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