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Nonparametric estimation of an instrumental regression: A quasi-Bayesian approach based on regularized posterior

  • Florens, Jean-Pierre
  • Simoni, Anna
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    We propose a quasi-Bayesian nonparametric approach to estimating the structural relationship φ among endogenous variables when instruments are available. We show that the posterior distribution of φ is inconsistent in the frequentist sense. We interpret this fact as the ill-posedness of the Bayesian inverse problem defined by the relation that characterizes the structural function φ. To solve this problem, we construct a regularized posterior distribution, based on a Tikhonov regularization of the inverse of the marginal variance of the sample, which is justified by a penalized projection argument. This regularized posterior distribution is consistent in the frequentist sense and its mean can be interpreted as the mean of the exact posterior distribution resulting from a Gaussian prior distribution with a shrinking covariance operator.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407612001285
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 170 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 458-475

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:170:y:2012:i:2:p:458-475
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

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    1. Jean-Pierre Florens & Anna Simoni, 2012. "Regularized Posteriors in Linear Ill-Posed Inverse Problems," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 39(2), pages 214-235, 06.
    2. Gagliardini, Patrick & Scaillet, Olivier, 2012. "Tikhonov regularization for nonparametric instrumental variable estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 61-75.
    3. Serge Darolles & Jean-Pierre Florens & Eric Renault, 2000. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," Working Papers 2000-17, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
    4. Chen, Xiaohong & White, Halbert, 1998. "Central Limit And Functional Central Limit Theorems For Hilbert-Valued Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays With Applications," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 260-284, April.
    5. Richard Blundell & Xiaohong Chen & Dennis Kristensen, 2007. "Semi-Nonparametric IV Estimation of Shape-Invariant Engel Curves," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1613-1669, November.
    6. Whitney K. Newey & James L. Powell, 2003. "Instrumental Variable Estimation of Nonparametric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1565-1578, 09.
    7. Chen, Xiaohong & Reiss, Markus, 2011. "On Rate Optimality For Ill-Posed Inverse Problems In Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 497-521, June.
    8. Frédérique Fève & Jean-Pierre Florens, 2010. "The practice of non-parametric estimation by solving inverse problems: the example of transformation models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(3), pages S1-S27, October.
    9. Florens, Jean-Pierre & Johannes, Jan & Van Bellegem, Sébastien, 2011. "Identification And Estimation By Penalization In Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(03), pages 472-496, June.
    10. Chunrong Ai & Xiaohong Chen, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Models with Conditional Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1795-1843, November.
    11. Carrasco, Marine & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Renault, Eric, 2007. "Linear Inverse Problems in Structural Econometrics Estimation Based on Spectral Decomposition and Regularization," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 6, chapter 77 Elsevier.
    12. Serge Darolles & Jean-Pierre Florens & Yanqin Fan & Eric Renault, 2011. "Nonparametric Instrumental Regression," Working Papers 245432, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, France.
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