Die deutsche Wirtschaft in der Pandemie

"At the beginning of the year 2020 the Corona pandemic terminated the longest period of economic growth in reunified Germany. Even the first wave of the Corona crisis represents a major cut in the business activities of many establishments in Germany. During the survey, i.e. between June and October 2020, around two-thirds of all firms in western and eastern Germany were affected by the negative impact of the pandemic or the measures taken to control it’s spreading. 85 percent and thus by far the majority of establishments in Germany assess the decline in demand as the biggest problem. Besides, officially ordered closures had a negative impact on business activities of around one third of the establishments. In particular, small establishments (nine percent) and micro-establishments (twelve percent) are afraid of having to give up their business. Among establishments in hotel business and gastronomy and other personal services, the share of establishments threatened with insolvency is particularly high. Many establishments adapt to the new situation by changing their business activities and personnel policy. Various forms of short-term working time adjustments like balancing working time accounts or vacation arrangements are common. Besides, short-time work arrangements play a major role in many establishments. In addition, flexible forms of work and the flexibilization of working hours become more important. Around one third of all firms have introduced or expanded home office opportunities for their employees; in sectors where work can be organized more decentral and the presence of personnel is not always required, the proportion is more than twice as high. In addition, a rising number of establishments apply part-time working models to gain flexibility in working time. A pandemic-related reduction in the workforce is rather rare in both West German and East German establishments. However, the general labor market dynamics weakened significantly in 2020, especially in micro-establishments employment growth is negative. The demand for skilled employees declines for the first time in 2020: in both western and eastern Germany, we observe a drop of around one third. Also the non-occupancy quota for skilled labor declines to 32 percent in western Germany and 37 percent in eastern Germany. Even in the current situation, vocational training plays an important role for many establishments; about 50 percent of the eligible firms actually provide vocational training. However, the survey also reveals that particularly small establishments and firms in eastern Germany have increasing problems to find suitable apprentices. A multivariate analysis examines the relationship between a firm's economic success in the past and the severity of its affection by the crisis. The results suggest that the previous year's revenue in particular has a high impact on the effect of the pandemic on establishments. A (very) good earnings situation in the past appears to act like a buffer that can cushion the initial consequences and thus the negative effects of the pandemic. Labor productivity and employment growth, although economically influential for the severity of liquidity constraints, have rather small impacts on the strength of the corona effects for establishments." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))