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Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage

Author

Listed:
  • Bossler, Mario

    () (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"Followed by an extensive policy discussion late 2013 and early 2014, the new German minimum wage was introduced on 1 January 2015. This article analyzes announcement effects of the new statutory minimum wage on employer expectations in 2014. The IAB Establishment Panel allows for a difference-in-differences comparison between affected and unaffected employers and entails variables that address the employers' employment expectations. In 2014, affected employers show an increased employment uncertainty and a drop in their expected employment development. They also more likely report wage costs to become a problem. In size, the employment expectations translate into a loss of about 12 800 jobs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Suggested Citation

  • Bossler, Mario, 2016. "Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage," IAB Discussion Paper 201603, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201603
    as

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    File URL: http://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2016/dp0316.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Caliendo, Marco & Fedorets, Alexandra & Preuß, Malte & Schröder, Carsten & Wittbrodt, Linda, 2017. "The Short-Run Employment Effects of the German Minimum Wage Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 11190, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Bossler, Mario & Gerner, Hans-Dieter, 2016. "Employment effects of the new German minimum wage: Evidence from establishment-level micro data," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145926, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Schierholz, Malte & Gensicke, Miriam & Tschersich, Nikolai, 2016. "Occupation coding during the interview," IAB Discussion Paper 201617, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    4. Garloff, Alfred & Wapler, Rüdiger, 2016. "Labour shortages and replacement demand in Germany : the (non)-consequences of demographic change," IAB Discussion Paper 201605, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    5. repec:spr:izalbr:v:6:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1186_s40172-017-0058-z is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Garloff, Alfred, 2016. "Side effects of the new German minimum wage on (un-)employment : first evidence from regional data," IAB Discussion Paper 201631, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    7. Möller, Joachim, 2016. "Lohnungleichheit: Gibt es eine Trendwende? (German wage inequality: Is there a trend reversal?)," IAB Discussion Paper 201609, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    8. Mendolicchio, Concetta & Pietra, Tito, 2016. "A re-examination of constrained Pareto inefficiency in economies with incomplete markets," IAB Discussion Paper 201612, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Bellmann, Lutz & Bossler, Mario & Dummert, Sandra & Ostmeier, Esther, 2017. "Mindestlohn: Längsschnittstudie für sächsische Betriebe," IAB-Forschungsbericht 201707, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    10. Schmitz, Sebastian, 2017. "The effects of Germany's new minimum wage on employment and welfare dependency," Discussion Papers 2017/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    11. Dengler, Katharina & Stops, Michael & Vicari, Basha, 2016. "Occupation-specific matching efficiency," IAB Discussion Paper 201616, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    12. Bossler, Mario & Gerner, Hans-Dieter, 2016. "Employment effects of the new German minimum wage : evidence from establishment-level micro data," IAB Discussion Paper 201610, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mindestlohn; Mindestlohnrecht; Beschäftigungseffekte; Arbeitgeber - Einstellungen; IAB-Betriebspanel;

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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