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Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Einsichten und Handlungsempfehlungen aus der Evaluationsforschung


  • Patrick Arni
  • Werner Eichhorst
  • Nico Pestel
  • Alexander Spermann
  • Klaus F. Zimmermann


A legal minimum wage of 8.50 € per hour will be introduced in Germany as of January 1, 2015. This paper summarizes and evaluates national and international research findings about minimum wages. Using the IZA micro-simulation model, it also simulates employment and distributional effects as well as fiscal effects of the reform and compares them with other studies. Whereas employment losses cannot be excluded and poverty reductions seem not to be likely, the evidence is not strong enough to make clear-cut predictions for Germany. Therefore, the study argues for a systematic and independent scientific evaluation of the newly introduced legal minimum wage in Germany. This could provide policymakers and voters with solid empirical evidence, and offer them a fair chance to suggest modifications through the electoral process. / Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Höhe von 8,50 Euro je Stunde wird zum 1. Januar 2015 in Deutschland eingeführt. Dieser Beitrag fasst die vorliegenden nationalen und internationalen Erfahrungen mit Mindestlöhnen zusammen. Dabei werden die Beschäftigungs- und Verteilungswirkungen sowie die fiskalischen Effekte mit Hilfe des IZA-Mikrosimulationsmodells abgeschätzt und mit Ergebnissen aus aktuellen Studien verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Ergebnisse aus der Analyse von Branchenmindestlöhnen und aus Mikrosimulationen trotz aufgezeigter Problempotenziale keine abschließende Beurteilung erlauben. Deshalb plädieren die Autoren für eine systematische und unabhängige wissenschaftliche Begleitforschung und Evaluation des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns. Dies lässt Politik und Wählern eine faire Option für eine Kurskorrektur.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Arni & Werner Eichhorst & Nico Pestel & Alexander Spermann & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2014. "Der gesetzliche Mindestlohn in Deutschland: Einsichten und Handlungsempfehlungen aus der Evaluationsforschung," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 134(2), pages 149-182.
  • Handle: RePEc:dah:aeqsjb:v134_y2014_i2_q2_p149-182

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    Cited by:

    1. Garloff, Alfred, 2016. "Side effects of the new German minimum wage on (un-)employment : first evidence from regional data," IAB Discussion Paper 201631, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    2. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    3. Schmitz, Sebastian, 2017. "The effects of Germany's new minimum wage on employment and welfare dependency," Discussion Papers 2017/21, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. repec:bla:scotjp:v:64:y:2017:i:4:p:327-348 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Loeffler, Max & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian & Sommer, Eric, 2014. "Documentation IZA?MOD v3.0: The IZA Policy Simulation Model," IZA Discussion Papers 8553, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:06:p:03-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Mario Bossler, 2017. "Employment expectations and uncertainties ahead of the new German minimum wage," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(4), pages 327-348, September.
    8. Koch, Andreas & Kirchmann, Andrea & Reiner, Marcel & Scheu, Tobias & Boockmann, Bernhard & Bonin, Holger, 2018. "Verhaltensmuster von Betrieben und Beschäftigten im Zuge der Einführung des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns," IZA Research Reports 84, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy


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