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Aktuelle Mikrosimulationsstudien zur Einführung eines partiellen bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens in Deutschland: Eine kritische Analyse

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  • Spermann, Alexander

Abstract

Mikrosimulationsstudien sind ein empirisches Standardinstrument zur ex ante-Evaluation wirtschaftspolitischer Vorschläge. Der Vorschlag eines bedingungslosen Grundeinkommen für Deutschland wurde in den letzten zwanzig Jahren immer wieder mit diesem Instrument simuliert - und aus fiskalischen Gründen nach Berücksichtigung von Verhaltensanpassungen am Arbeitsmarkt verworfen. Im Jahr 2021 wurden auch Berechnungen zu partiellen Grundeinkommensmodellen in Deutschland vorgelegt. In diesem Beitrag werden die wichtigsten Ergebnisse dargestellt und kritisch analysiert. Es zeigt sich, dass die negativen Beschäftigungseffekte und die fiskalischen Kosten eines partiellen Grundeinkommens durch die Art der Modellierung überzeichnet werden. Der Autor befürwortet weitere Mikrosimulationsstudien mit einer verbesserten Modellierung. Dagegen liefern Mikrosimulationsstudien zur Kindergrundsicherung - einem bedingungslosen Grundeinkommen für Kinder - bereits weitreichende, jedoch noch nicht ausreichende empirische Evidenz für Politikentscheidungen.

Suggested Citation

  • Spermann, Alexander, 2022. "Aktuelle Mikrosimulationsstudien zur Einführung eines partiellen bedingungslosen Grundeinkommens in Deutschland: Eine kritische Analyse," FRIBIS Discussion Paper Series 01-2022, University of Freiburg, Freiburg Institute for Basic Income Studies (FRIBIS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fribis:012022
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