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Are Crime Rates Really Stationary?

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Many empirical studies of the economics of crime focus solely on the determinants thereof, and do not consider the dynamic and cross-sectional properties of their data. As a response to this, the current paper offers an in-depth analysis of this issue using data covering 21 Swedish counties from 1975 to 2008. The results suggest that the four crime types considered are non-stationary, and that this cannot be attributed to county specific disparities, but rather that it is due to a small number of common stochastic trends to which groups of counties tend to revert. The results further suggest that these trends can be given a macroeconomic interpretation. Our findings are consistent with recent theoretical models predicting that crime should be dependent across both time and counties.

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  • Joakim, Westerlund & Johan, Blomquist, 2009. "Are Crime Rates Really Stationary?," Working Papers 2009:20, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2009_020
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; Non-stationary data; Panel unit root tests; Common factor;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General

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