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Are Crime Rates Really Stationary?

Many empirical studies of the economics of crime focus solely on the determinants thereof, and do not consider the dynamic and cross-sectional properties of their data. As a response to this, the current paper offers an in-depth analysis of this issue using data covering 21 Swedish counties from 1975 to 2008. The results suggest that the four crime types considered are non-stationary, and that this cannot be attributed to county specific disparities, but rather that it is due to a small number of common stochastic trends to which groups of counties tend to revert. The results further suggest that these trends can be given a macroeconomic interpretation. Our findings are consistent with recent theoretical models predicting that crime should be dependent across both time and counties.

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File URL: http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP09_20.pdf
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Paper provided by Lund University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2009:20.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 21 Dec 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2009_020
Contact details of provider: Postal: Department of Economics, School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Box 7082, S-220 07 Lund,Sweden
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en

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