Are Crime Rates Really Stationary?
Many empirical studies of the economics of crime focus solely on the determinants thereof, and do not consider the dynamic and cross-sectional properties of their data. As a response to this, the current paper offers an in-depth analysis of this issue using data covering 21 Swedish counties from 1975 to 2008. The results suggest that the four crime types considered are non-stationary, and that this cannot be attributed to county specific disparities, but rather that it is due to a small number of common stochastic trends to which groups of counties tend to revert. The results further suggest that these trends can be given a macroeconomic interpretation. Our findings are consistent with recent theoretical models predicting that crime should be dependent across both time and counties.
|Date of creation:||21 Dec 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +46 +46 222 0000
Fax: +46 +46 2224613
Web page: http://www.nek.lu.se/en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995.
"Convergence in International Output,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2003.
"A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
- Raphael, Steven & Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf, 1999.
"Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2129, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Raphael, Steven & WINTER-EBMER, RUDOLF, 1998. "Identifying the Effect of Unemployment on Crime," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5hb4h56g, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000.
"Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1504, Econometric Society.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996.
"Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
- Andrew B. Bernard & Steven N. Durlauf, 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," NBER Technical Working Papers 0159, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernard, A.B. & Durlauf, S.N., 1994. "Interpreting Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working papers 9401r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Perron, P. & Rodriguez, G., 2000.
"Seraching for Additive Outliers in Nonstationary Time Series,"
0005e, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
- Pierre Perron & Gabriel RodrÌguez, 2003. "Searching For Additive Outliers In Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 193-220, 03.
- Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Chiara Osbat, .
"Testing for PPP: Should We Use Panel Methods?,"
186, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Robert Witt & Alan Clarke & Nigel Fielding, 1998. "Common trends and common cycles in regional crime," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(11), pages 1407-1412.
- repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
- Murphy, Kevin M & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1993. "Why Is Rent-Seeking So Costly to Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(2), pages 409-14, May.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2001.
"A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
519, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gary S. Becker, 1974.
"Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach,"
in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fajnzylber, Pablo & Lederman, Daniel & Loayza, Norman, 2002. "What causes violent crime?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1323-1357, July.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Aman Ullah & Takashi Yamagata, 2008.
"A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross-section independence,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 11(1), pages 105-127, 03.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Ullah, A. & Yamagata. T., 2006. "A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross Section Independence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0641, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Luciano Gutierrez, 2006.
"Panel Unit-root Tests for Cross-sectionally Correlated Panels: A Monte Carlo Comparison,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 519-540, 08.
- Luciano Gutierrez, 2003. "Panel Unit Roots Tests for Cross-Sectionally Correlated Panels: A Monte Carlo Comparison," Econometrics 0310004, EconWPA.
- Ayat, Leila & Burridge, Peter, 2000.
"Unit root tests in the presence of uncertainty about the non-stochastic trend,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 71-96, March.
- Ayat, L. & Burridge, P., 1996. "Unit Root Tests in the presence of Uncertainty about the Non-Stochastic Trends," Discussion Papers 96-28, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Glaeser, Edward L & Sacerdote, Bruce & Scheinkman, Jose A, 1996.
"Crime and Social Interactions,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 111(2), pages 507-48, May.
- Edward E. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1995. "Crime and Social Interactions," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1738, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Edward L. Glaeser & Bruce Sacerdote & Jose A. Scheinkman, 1995. "Crime and Social Interactions," NBER Working Papers 5026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sah, Raaj K, 1991.
"Social Osmosis and Patterns of Crime,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(6), pages 1272-95, December.
- Sah, R.K., 1990. "Social Osmosis And Patterns Of Crime: A Dynamic Economic Analysis," Papers 609, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006.
"Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure,"
Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
- Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
- Carlisle E. Moody & Thomas B. Marvell, 2005. "Guns and Crime," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 720-736, April.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco, 1997. "Aggregation and the Microfoundations of Dynamic Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198288008, March.
- Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995.
"Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, March.
- Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2006. "Confidence Intervals for Diffusion Index Forecasts and Inference for Factor-Augmented Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1133-1150, 07.
- Eric D. Gould & Bruce A. Weinberg & David B. Mustard, 2002. "Crime Rates And Local Labor Market Opportunities In The United States: 1979-1997," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 45-61, February.
- Karin Edmark, 2005. "Unemployment and Crime: Is There a Connection?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(2), pages 353-373, 06.
- Funk, Patricia & Kugler, Peter, 2003. "Dynamic interactions between crimes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 291-298, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2009_020. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Edgerton)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.